The Oklahoma City Thunder have 14 games remaining on the regular season schedule before the Play-In Tournament and, ultimately, the NBA Playoffs come about.
Considering they already have their postseason ticket punched and hold a 12-win lead over the second-seeded Houston Rockets, home-court advantage is all but locked up throughout what is hoped to be a deep and prosperous run.
Of course, even though their standing out West is secure, this is not to say there still aren't important things for fans to keep an eye on during these final few weeks of action.
In fact, there are three storylines, in particular, that all Thunder faithful should be paying close attention to moving forward.
2025 first round pick via Philadelphia 76ers
Sam Presti sought to collect as many future first-round picks as possible in the early days of Oklahoma City's rebuild, and one of those occurrences was accepting Al Horford’s salary in exchange for a top-six protected 2025 first-rounder.
Unfortunately for the 76ers, it’s the worst possible time for the check to arrive.
Joel Embiid only managed to see action in 19 games in 2024-25 before being shut down for the season, while promising rookie Jared McCain suffered a season-ending injury after just 23 games.
Prized offseason acquisition Paul George has fought through injuries and also played poorly relative to his standards.
As a result, Philadelphia has the sixth-worst record in the NBA. Based on the standings, it’s highly likely that they finish somewhere in between the fifth and seventh-worst record in the league.
Here’s a breakdown of the probability that Philadelphia lands in the top six based on the lottery odds and subsequently protects their pick:
- Fifth-worst record = 63.9 percent chance of 76ers keeping their pick
- Sixth-worst record = 45.8 percent chance
- Seventh-worst record = 31.9 percent chance
The ideal situation for OKC is Philadelphia finishing with the seventh-worst record. Brooklyn and Toronto must lose more games than Philadelphia during this final month for that to happen.
One name to watch is Quentin Grimes. The Mavericks sent him to the Sixers at the trade deadline, and the young sharpshooter has averaged 19.9 points per game since the acquisition. He could win them a game or two by himself and drastically alter the race to the bottom.
If the 76ers wind up lucky and safeguard their first, then it becomes a top-four protected first rounder next season. That’s still a valuable asset, but a healthy season from Embiid could slash its worth.
Ideal matchups in Western Conference bracket
Although the Thunder are significant favorites to emerge from the West, an NBA Finals run will be difficult to orchestrate.
The Nuggets and Lakers represent the biggest threats to OKC because they could each possess the best player on the court in a potential matchup. Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic, and playoff LeBron James eat elite defenses for breakfast and guarantee great shot quality.
Golden State has a puncher’s chance because of Stephen Curry’s shot-making, and Jimmy Butler is a proven playoff performer who wreaks havoc as a slasher and foul-drawer. Factor in Draymond Green’s defense, and the Warriors are not a team to be taken lightly.
Minnesota has also given OKC fits because of their length, physicality, and defensive strengths. Anthony Edwards averages 27.8 points per game in the playoffs for his career, too.
The other West squads are hardly a desirable matchup, but they cannot exploit OKC’s flaws or neutralize their strengths like the above four teams.
Here’s an ideal and realistic bracket for the Thunder to hope for:
- 1. Thunder
- 2. Nuggets
- 3. Lakers
- 4. Rockets
- 5. Grizzlies
- 6. Warriors
- 7. Timberwolves
- 8. Suns
One of James or Curry are guaranteed out in the first round. Minnesota has been a thorn in Denver’s side and may knock out Jokic. The winner of each battle would then face off and take out another threat to the Thunder.
Meanwhile, OKC draws a Suns team that can’t stop a runny nose. The Rockets lack enough offense to pull off the upset, and the Thunder match up extremely well versus the Grizzlies.
Plus, the Clippers would be banished to the lottery. OKC has the right to swap their first-rounder with Los Angeles, so Presti would own a very small chance at winning the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes.
Cleveland Cavaliers’ push for 70 wins
Home-court advantage in the NBA Finals is determined by regular season record.
Cleveland is on pace for 68 wins and holds a narrow lead over Oklahoma City. It will be worth monitoring which team winds up with the superior record because hosting a hypothetical Game 7 is a huge advantage.
Coach Mark Daigneault must prioritize rest above the best record, though. Entering the postseason refreshed is worth more than a 70-win season.
Just ask the 2015-16 Warriors.