Saturday, the OKC Thunder and Houston Rockets will be squaring off in a winner take all elimination game out in Vegas for a chance to represent their conference in the championship round of the 2024 Emirates NBA Cup.
Though initially underwhelmed by the in-season tournament, now that group play is out of the way this Oklahoma City squad seems to be growing more enthusiastic about the festivities by the day, with many players outwardly sharing their specific motivations to go on and win it all.
However, before they can claim the cup as their own, they'll need to find a way to get past the surging Rockets in their upcoming Semifinal bout.
In truth, the best way for them to punch their ticket to the NBA Cup Finals is to have their focal points Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams continue to stuff the stat sheets at their historic rates.
However, as we've seen all year, winning will require more than just two players shining bright. Because of this, the team as a whole will need to hone in on three very specific keys to victory.
Keys to Thunder clinching NBA Cup Finals berth over Rockets
Control Rockets' pace of play
Through 25 games played, the Houston Rockets have managed to succeed exceptionally while pushing the pace on the hardwood, ranking within the top 12 in such a metric (100.42) during each of their 17 wins on the year.
What's interesting to note, however, is that they have struggled mightily when contained to a slower play style, as each of their eight losses on the year have come while averaging the sixth-worst pace of play at 97.60.
Getting out in transition and racking up fast break points has been one of Houston's best skills, as they have registered 446 of their 2,818 total points scored (roughly 16.0) in such a fashion.
All things considered, controlling the pace and limiting the Rockets' fast break opportunities will only help increase Oklahoma City's chances of coming away victorious.
Fortunately for the Thunder, they come in ranked as the fourth-best defense against fast-break-scoring opportunities and have forced a large portion of the faster-paced teams to slow down below their averages during what would wind up being losses for the opposing team.
Dominate in the blocks department
Considering just how evenly matched these two teams are, in order for the Thunder to win it will almost certainly require them focusing in on and, in turn, trying to emulate negative trends that the Rockets have seen during their losses this season.
Fortunately for them, one of the more interesting statistical categories Houston has seen an unfortunate uptick in during their eight defeats on the year is an area of play OKC thrives in.
Said statistical category: blocks against.
In losses, the Rockets find themselves getting stuffed at an average rate of 6.4 times per game, the fourth-worst mark in such situations. Oklahoma City, meanwhile, averages the fourth-most blocks per game in 2024-25 with exactly 6.4, while seeing a slight uptick to 6.7 in wins.
Being they have three players in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, and Jalen Williams who currently rank within the top-50 in total blocks per game (would be four if Chet Holmgren were active), and two in SGA and Isaiah Hartenstein with blocks per game averages, it seems that the Thunder will be more than capable of sending back many of Houston's heaves on Saturday night.
Limit Houston's free throw attempts
The lack of free throw attempts the Thunder have seen this season has been hotly discussed and frequently chastised by pundits, players, and team personnel. However, arguably equally as distressing is the rate in which their opponents are heading to the charity stripe.
On the season, OKC has allowed the fifth-most free throw attempts at 25.2 per game. More disheartening, this number increases to a whopping 30.0 a night in losing efforts, the worst-mark in the league.
On paper, this seems like a match made in heaven for the Rockets, as they are tied for the fourth-highest free throw rate at 23.8 attempts per game.
Now, fortunately for the Thunder, even with this enviable number of visitations to the line, Houston is only converting on 77.1 percent of their attempts (the ninth-worst rate).
That said, regardless of their lackluster success rate, unnecessarily giving the Rockets opportunities to put more points on the board should be the last thing Oklahoma City wants to see happen, especially with an NBA Cup Finals berth on the line.