3 Keys to a Thunder victory vs Nuggets on opening night

After waiting and watching every other team in the league play, OKC fans can finally watch the hometown Thunder play in the regular season, where they will be going out to the Mile High City to take on the Nuggets on Thursday night.

Denver did not improve much over the offseason, as they lost Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, but replaced him with Oklahoma City legend Russell Westbrook. In the draft, the 2023 champions drafted Daron Holmes II, but he will not play due to injuries. 

The Nuggets still have a deadly duo in Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, while third option Aaron Gordon is no one to scoff at as he is looking to prove worthy of his brand-new contract. The path to the 2025 NBA Finals for Oklahoma City begins against Denver, where they'll look to prove just how much better they are than other top-tier teams in the West. 

For them to accomplish such a feat, however, there are three keys that they must to hone in on.

Keys to a Thunder victory over Nuggets on opening night

Establishing the 3-point shot

The squad is changing their offensive philosophy this year, as head coach Mark Daigneault wants the team to take more 3-point shots. 

Last year, OKC went for efficiency when shooting the ball (ranked first with a 38.9 percent conversion rate), but now the goal is to take more volume shots (ranked 16 in attempts per game at 34.2).

During their preseason bout against the Nuggets, this was already shown to be an aim, as the Bricktown squad attempted 46 three balls and converted 17 of them. Almost half of their shots taken on the night were from beyond the arc.

How they can establish this shot is by getting open looks for their main guys like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams. If those two can get the jumper falling early, it will force defenders to help when they have the ball.

This will allow other players like Isaiah Joe and Lu Dort to get open for either a deep ball or on cuts to the rim. 

If the 3-point shot is falling, the offense will expand and being virtually unstoppable.

Limiting Nikola Jokic’s playmaking

The goal is not to stop Jokic, but, rather, limit the impact he can have on his teammates. 

The Joker is a player who will find ways to score and hurt the defense, so there is no real way to stop him. However, what the Thunder can do is pick one part of his game to limit, leading to mistakes that the team can capitalize on. 

This would be the playmaking ability of the center.

There is no doubt the Serbian-born baller is the best passing big man in the league, and, with the options surrounding him, he can rely on his teammates to knock down open shots.

The way the defense can limit this is by staying in the passing lanes and forcing Jokic to take bad shots and try to do it himself. 

Staying in the lanes is one way to stop his playmaking. Another is by not falling into double teams.

The Thunder can live with Nikola being the main scorer, but when the other options such as Murray and Gordon get going, it is hard to stop them. 

If Oklahoma City can limit how well the surrounding players shoot and live in the passing lanes, Denver could easily be held to scoring under 100 points. 

Winning the rebound battle

This one may seem like the most obvious key to victory, but it will be difficult. 

The news of Isaiah Hartenstein being sidelined for at least the next month limits how much OKC can compete in the paint offensively and defensively. Usually, this would be no problem, but their primary backup big man Jaylin Williams will also be shelved for the season opener with a hamstring injury.

This leaves a combination of just Chet Holmgren and potentially Ousmane Dieng to battle it out on the boards which, though they may have the height advantage (7-foot-1 and 6-foot-10, respectively) they lack significantly in the strength and muscle department.

Rebounding was one of the major weaknesses the Thunder had last season. This year, that hole was supposed to be solved with the addition of I-Hart, but won't be shown in effect until the end of November once the Houston product is back off the injury list.

Of course, with players like Dieng and rookie Dillon Jones, who showed promise during the preseason, coming off the bench there will still be some reinforcements in this area of the game.

Another guy who could see playing time is newly signed center Alex Reese. The big man did enough during the preseason to get offered a contract, so he could get some time in the season opener to show his worth and a big-bodied presence.

This means nothing, though, if they do not compete in the paint. 

The team needs to box out and create space in the lanes for boards to be easier to grab. Doing this should make everything much simpler for the team as they look to start off their 2024-25 season with a win.