The OKC Thunder managed to stockpile the largest collection of future draft picks in NBA history during their short rebuild, and it still has not come close to running dry.
The reigning champs subsequently possess a ton of ammunition to replenish their depth chart once it inevitably becomes financially overwhelmed. Hitting on rookies such as Nikola Topic will be absolutely critical over the next few seasons.
The 2026 NBA Draft is projected to be extremely strong, so snagging a lottery pick would be a stroke of luck for OKC. Do they have a reasonable chance at such a break, though?
Thunder have a realistic shot at 2026 lottery pick thanks to Al Horford
Here is where Oklahoma City currently stands in terms of 2026 first-round capital.
- Two most favorable of own, Clippers, and Rockets (top-four protected)
- 76ers (top-four protected)
- Jazz (top-eight protected)
Although Utah’s pick may look tantalizing, there’s essentially no chance that it conveys. They recently purged their roster of veterans and will likely struggle to crack 20 wins this coming year.
Numerous online sportsbooks have set Utah’s win total at 18.5 for the upcoming season, which is the lowest in the league.
If the Jazz secure a bottom-four record, then they cannot finish ninth or later in the lottery and automatically protect their pick. This seems to be the most likely outcome.
For the Thunder to have a puncher’s chance at receiving the pick, they would need Utah to finish with the seventh-worst record, which would then give OKC a 14.2 percent chance. The probability of it conveying would only increase if Utah were to wind up with the eighth-worst record and so on.
At this point, it’s unfortunately a pipe dream. There are not six teams across the association that will earn fewer wins than the tanking Jazz, so the Thunder should just erase this pick from their thoughts.
Meanwhile, the Thunder, Rockets, and Clippers all possess tremendous depth and boast fearsome defenses. That’s a recipe for racking up regular season victories, so they should fight for home-court advantage.
OKC receives the two most favorable of those three picks, but the bounty likely winds up being a pick in the low 20s and a pick in the high 20s. These are helpful assets, though they possess very little star upside.
On the other hand, the top-four protected pick by Philadelphia that was received via the 2020 Al Horford trade is highly intriguing. In a perfect world, their roster should theoretically cruise to a playoff spot in a weak Eastern Conference, but injuries are once again a serious concern for them.
Joel Embiid’s left knee is a mess and sparks conversations about an early retirement. The former MVP has missed 106 games over the past two regular seasons. Even if Embiid manages to stay relatively healthy this season, he won’t play in back-to-backs.
Paul George, meanwhile, is also a significant injury risk. Since joining the Clippers in the summer of 2019, the forward has missed 35.5 percent of regular-season games. That translates to 29 missed games during an 82-game season on average.
According to ESPN, the veteran underwent surgery on his knee in July. At the moment, George is expected to be fully healthy by opening night, but it’s yet another operation on his resume – that’s never a good thing.
Plus, Philadelphia’s bench will rely on flawed veterans who are past their primes, such as Andre Drummond, Kyle Lowry, and Eric Gordon.
Let’s say the absolute worst-case injury scenario occurs for Philadelphia, and they somehow own the worst record in the NBA at the conclusion of the regular season.
Based on the lottery odds, that would still give the Thunder a 47.9 percent chance of dodging the top-four protections and receiving the fifth-overall pick.
The odds may not entirely be in their favor, but there is a decent chance that the 76ers will convey a lottery pick to the Thunder. Anything can happen once the ping pong balls start rolling, so Philadelphia’s debt represents OKC’s best hope for a miracle.
Overall, look for the Thunder to have three first-round picks in the 2026 Draft with a feasible chance of worming into the lottery.