The OKC Thunder currently own the best record in the NBA at 59-12 and recently clinched the top seed in the Western Conference standings for the second year in a row.
With all their successes up to this point, it appears that 2024-25 presents the ball club with their best chance at winning a title in their short history.
Regardless of how this year's campaign shakes out, however, changes could still very well be on the horizon out in Oklahoma City.
According to Bobby Marks of ESPN, the league has notified franchises that the 2026 salary cap is expected to be set at $154.6 million, which is a 10 percent increase from this season’s figure.
Marks also laid out the projected thresholds for the luxury tax, first apron, and second apron. These checkpoints – along with their postseason success – will be significant factors in shaping OKC’s offseason.
To no surprise, NBA teams were notified that the salary cap in 2025-26 is expected to increase 10% from this past season, sources tell ESPN.
— Bobby Marks (@BobbyMarks42) March 25, 2025
The current projection is the same that were given to teams in the offseason.
Salary cap: $154.6M
Luxury tax: $187.9M
First apron:…
How the 2026 salary cap projections may impact the OKC Thunder
Due to their abundance of recent rookie contracts and Sam Presti’s knack for jumping on long-term extensions as soon as possible, the Thunder are the only team in the NBA with all 15 players under contract for next season.
Their roster will earn a combined $177,782,893, which exceeds the projected salary cap by a decent margin.
However, they would still be $10,117,107 below the luxury tax and $18,117,107 below the dreaded first apron.
What does this mean from a practical perspective?
The Thunder cannot sign free agents using cap space, but they will have the non-taxpayer mid-level exception available to them. They'll be able to theoretically sign a player for a maximum of four seasons and $14,105,000 (projected) using this tool.
However, OKC must still remain below the luxury tax after its use, so they can only go up to $10,117,107 at this moment.
That’s enough to sign a quality player if they want to dip their toes into the free agency pool. For example, Golden State utilized the exception to acquire De’Anthony Melton last offseason.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma City's surplus of space is also significant for trades because the first apron requires teams to receive at least as much salary as they send out in any trade.
Nets forward Cameron Johnson, for instance, is under contract for $20,543,478 next season. If the Thunder were above the first apron, they would be obligated to send at least that much back to Brooklyn in a hypothetical exchange.
However, their current financial situation means OKC could legally send roughly $13M to complete the transaction.
Now, draft picks will slightly change the equation. The Thunder could receive anywhere from one to three first-round picks in the 2025 Draft. Presti may kick the can down the road by flipping them for future selections, but it’s likely that he wants fresh rookie contracts on the books with Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren’s monster extensions looming.
Therefore, the Thunder would need to create roster space for their incoming rookies. Trading Ousmane Dieng and Dillon Jones for future draft capital makes the most sense.
OKC’s total salary cap figure would subsequently change based on the difference between Dieng and Jones’ cap hits and the rookies’ financial commitments. It shouldn’t be substantially different, though, so the Thunder should still be an over-the-cap team with some space below the luxury tax.
Overall, Oklahoma City possesses far more flexibility than the vast majority of contenders. They will have the room and assets to make notable moves should they need to make tweaks in case of a disappointing playoff exit.