The Oklahoma City Thunder, for now, have solved their financial issues.
Thankfully, they were able to bring Isaiah Hartenstein back on a three-year, $75 million deal in the course of their moves this offseason. Right now, his importance can't be overstated. He's a highly physical rebounder and screen-setter, and his presence in the starting rotation frees up Chet Holmgren to play the roaming defensive role that suits him so well.
If any player on this roster needs to be traded, Hartenstein should be one of the last pieces Oklahoma City should turn to.
But there's a larger financial reality bearing down on them in the coming offseasons. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's contract will take the leap up to $61 million in 2027-28 before climbing as high as $70 million before the duration of his deal is over. Cason Wallace is eligible for an extension this offseason, and both Ajay Mitchell and Jared McCain will enter that realm next year.
There's no guarantee the Thunder are going to hold onto all three of those young pieces by the time it's all said and done. But if they ultimately want to take that route, you simply can't have three star-level contracts and maintain the plethora of medium-sized depth deals that Oklahoma City has taken on. Someone will need to be moved, and Hartenstein's contract is immanently tradeable.
The only way Oklahoma City feels comfortable moving him in the slightest, though, is going to be if Chet Holmgren is able to become more physical and more confident playing in the paint as a pure big man. Hartenstein's future with the organization could therefore hinge, at least partially, on how Holmgren continues to develop as he exits his rookie contract.
The Thunder need Isaiah Hartenstein, but Chet Holmgren has a chance to grant them more versatility at that position
Again, the Thunder need Hartenstein. In a highly physical playoff setting like the one we saw in this year's Western Conference Finals against the San Antonio Spurs, Hartenstein was one of a select few keys the Thunder had to advancing to the NBA Finals. They ultimately fell short because of a lack of ball-handling depth and a depleted offensive structure, but there were times where they would've been completely lost without Hartenstein leading the way against Victor Wembanyama and company.
Moving Hartenstein should not even be an option right now, let alone a priority.
Holmgren struggled to get anything going offensively against the Spurs frontcourt, averaging just 10.7 points and shooting 51% from the field across the seven-game series. More importantly, though, he's not currently able to be completely maximized as a defender with Hartenstein off the court. There was only a slight dip in the Thunder's defensive rating last season when Holmgren took the court without Hartenstein, but it was clear that Oklahoma City needed to lean more heavily on their perimeter defenders when that duo wasn't fully available to them over the course of the season.
All of this should be taken into account. But the fact of the matter is that this roster and its contractual obligations will need to be slimmed down at some point before the expiration of Hartenstein's three-year deal.
With Aday Mara and Thomas Sorber now also on the roster, the Thunder have options to explore. Can either of those pieces develop into a long-term big man piece to pair with Holmgren in the way that Hartenstein has functioned over the past couple of seasons?
But at the end of the day, Holmgren's continued development hinges on his ability to play more physically and more consistently on both ends of the floor, which almost certainly means he needs to develop the capability to reliably take on primary big man minutes when Hartenstein needs to miss time.
Hartenstein doesn't immediately become replaceable if he's able to do that. But when the roster crunch comes for this Thunder team again, their confidence in Holmgren could determine how they ultimately want to approach Hartenstein's future with the organization.
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