Though many may have already forgotten, OKC Thunder big man Chet Holmgren was the odds-on favorite to win the NBA's Defensive Player of the Year for much of the season. Ultimately, however, a late push by Spurs star Victor Wembanyama led to a landslide decision in his favor.
Now, Chet enters the 2026-27 campaign with even worse odds to beat out the San Antonio giant, according to FanDuel. Though this is largely due to Wemby's own defensive prowess, and deservedly so, the Thunder have not helped Holmgren's case this offseason.
In fact, they are arguably making it even tougher on their 7-footer.
Thunder simply don't need Chet Holmgren the way they did last year
Last season, Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein worked in tandem to defend the rim at an elite level. Together, they led OKC to a top-two finish in points in the paint allowed per game.
Hart played an integral role, but Holmgren received much of the attention, as his nearly two blocks per game spoke to his rim-protecting abilities.
Though he has proved to be an elite shot blocker, certain aspects of Holmgren's defense were exposed last postseason. Against the Spurs, he was repeatedly pushed around by players of all shapes and sizes.
The bully ball proved too much for him, and OKC responded by selecting the 7-foot-3 Aday Mara in the 2026 NBA Draft.
This year, Mara and Hartenstein will also be accompanied down low by fellow youngster Thomas Sorber, who was taken in the first round of the 2025 draft. The suddenly deep center position paints a clear picture for Holmgren's future. If the three aforementioned centers, along with Jaylin Williams, plan on duking it out for playing time, Holmgren is likely to avoid that position battle altogether.
Last year, he oscillated between the center and forward positions, but the current roster makeup paints him as a clear power forward. It's difficult to see many situations outside of small-ball lineups where Hartenstein, Mara, Sorber, and J-Will are all off the floor at the same time.
Reimagined Chet Holmgren role has Thunder playing him less to his strengths
It's no mystery as to why Holmgren's blocks per game have declined in each of his first three years in the league. Hartenstein joined the team after his injury-induced red-shirt rookie year, and he has been tasked with more assignments away from the rim as his career has progressed.
The 2025-26 playoffs may have just accelerated the trend.
Without a clear statistical advantage to support his case, Holmgren will have a tough time overtaking Wembanyama as the league's top defender.
He still has the second-highest odds to win the award, but it is a distant second. As of now, it looks like a race featuring Victor versus the field.
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