Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Jaylin Williams have all dealt with lengthy injuries this season.
To put the crisis into perspective, at least two of them have played in the same game only 12 times all year, which equates to 27.2 percent of the OKC Thunder’s 44 games!
Chaos creates unexpected opportunities, and rookie Branden Carlson is stepping up to the plate.
The big man started 140 games across five collegiate seasons at Utah and entered the 2024 draft as the program’s all-time blocks leader. He also knocked down 37.9 percent of his triples on decent volume and averaged 17.0 points per game during his final season.
The 25-year-old ultimately went undrafted despite NBA teams constantly being on the lookout for stretch fives who protect the rim. It’s likely that Carlson’s age heavily contributed to his name not being called.
Toronto scooped him up on a two-way contract in July before eventually waiving him in October a few days before the season opener. It’s worth noting that Carlson struggled across 21 minutes of preseason action, which may have played a role in this decision.
Enter Sam Presti. Due to injuries, the storied executive needed to add center depth and subsequently signed Carlson to a standard contract on November 16.
The rookie barely played for the first six weeks, so he continued to fly under the radar. OKC waived Carlson on January 7 before signing him to a 10-day contract on January 10 –- a maneuver that opened up a roster spot.
The Thunder then signed him to a second 10-day contract on January 22 after a solid stretch of basketball for the rookie.
Franchises cannot use this type of commitment for the same player three times in a single season, and 10-day contracts cannot be converted into standard deals. Therefore, OKC must decide by February 1 whether they want to sign him to a rest-of-season contract (which takes up a roster spot) or lose him.
Given the more urgent need to convert Ajay Mitchell, the Thunder would have to open up another roster spot in order to sign Carlson to a rest-of-season deal.
Sending Ousmane Dieng to a rebuilder for future draft capital makes sense. Another logical move would be aggregating multiple players in exchange for one who can help boost the Thunder’s title chances, such as a Cameron Johnson trade.
Whatever happens, one thing is for certain: Presti does not have much time to solve the Carlson quagmire.
Why Branden Carlson has played well enough for a new contract
When looking through Carlson’s stats, it’s important to understand that the sample is simply too small to extrapolate with confidence. He’s only logged 95 minutes and 35 field goal attempts.
With that being said, it’s easy to be encouraged by the rookie’s recent seven-game stretch where he averaged 5.6 points in nearly 10 minutes per game.
Carlson has displayed excellent three-point shooting touch and legitimate potential as a stretch-big. He’s shooting the ball with confidence and smoothly transitioning into his form off the catch.
His tendency to dip the ball immediately after the catch slightly elongates his release time, but the big gets his shot off quickly compared to other bigs.
Perimeter shooting should be widely viewed as his defining trait in the NBA. That’s huge for the Thunder because their offense revolves around elite slashers.
Carlson’s range can pull opposing centers away from the paint and open up driving lanes. If they don’t bite, then it’s an open triple for the big.
The following clip perfectly displays this principle and why trotting out a stretch-five next to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s rim pressure is so dangerous.
We see you, @ballerbranden35! pic.twitter.com/L8MKmFSylR
— OKC THUNDER (@okcthunder) January 17, 2025
Meanwhile, the rookie owns a superb block percentage and is showing an understanding of when to time his rim contests.
Now, there’s obviously plenty of areas that require improvement. His defensive positioning must be more consistent, especially when cutters storm into the paint. A more well-rounded interior scoring bag and added strength would also greatly behoove him.
However, the bottom line is that Branden Carlson has truly played quality basketball for an undrafted rookie thrown into Oklahoma City's complex defensive system. He owns plenty of promise as a backup big.
Overall, the Thunder have outscored opponents by 19.6 points per 100 possessions with Carlson on the floor. OKC has also scored 152 points per 100 possessions across 32 minutes with Gilgeous-Alexander and Carlson together.
Again, it’s a minuscule sample and should be taken with a grain of salt, but the numbers so far agree with the eye test’s conclusion that the Carlson experiment deserves more time.
Whether he winds up with a rest-of-season contract or not, it’s clear that the rookie’s play has earned it.