As things currently stand, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic are viewed as the two top candidates to take home the 2026 NBA MVP award, though it is widely believed that the OKC Thunder superstar currently has the edge in the race.
The Athletic's Sam Vecenie believes there's one major factor as to why: defense.
During a recent episode of the Game Theory Podcast, the seasoned writer was quick to drag Jokic for his efforts on the less glamorous side of the ball this season, and believes that his lapses, compared to SGA's defensive excellence, serve as "a differentiator" when it comes to choosing between the two for the illustrious honor.
Thunder star blows Nikola Jokic out of the water on defense
Though Jokic may take the slight edge in regard to the conversation of who's the better overall offensive weapon, there's objectively no question that Gilgeous-Alexander is far and away the superior defensive talent.
Here in 2025-26, the two superstars are clearly telling two very different tales with their play on defense.
Out in the Mile High City, we have Jokic, who allows opponents to shoot at a 47.8 percent clip, registers in with a defensive rating of just 114.6 and .090 defensive win shares, and is the only center in the league who's allowing over 36.3 points in the paint (minimum 30 games played).
Meanwhile, SGA is allowing opponents to shoot at a clip of just 43.0 percent (ninth-best mark among those who have played 40 or more games) while sporting an elite defensive rating of 105.2 and ranking first in the association in win-shares at .176.
Add all this to the fact that he currently ranks second in the league behind only Luka Doncic in points-per-game with 31.6 (Jokic falls in at fifth with 28.8), and there's a strong case to be made that the Thunder cornerstone is perhaps the best two-way player in the game today, let alone the top choice for MVP.
Nikola Jokic may become ineligible for MVP is he misses any more games
Regardless of Vecenie's case about Jokic being inferior to Gilgeous-Alexander on the defensive side of the ball, the Nuggets' big man may miss out on the honor altogether due to the league's so-called “65-game rule” that was implemented right before the start of the 2023-24 campaign.
Simply put, this new policy allows a player to miss a total of 17 games (18 if they reach the NBA Cup Final) before they're eliminated from contending for end-of-season honors such as Defensive Player of the Year, Most Improved Player, All-NBA, All-Defensive teams, and, of course, Most Valuable Player.
As things currently stand, Jokic has already missed out on 16 games this season. With 18 remaining on Denver's schedule, seeing him be shelved for one more is highly plausible, which, in turn, would take him out of contention entirely.