The path to winning the 2025-26 Defensive Player of the Year award is relatively straightforward for OKC Thunder stud, Chet Holmgren, and, oddly enough, it has very little to do with how much he can improve his skills from years past to now.
Holmgren enters the season as the betting favorite behind San Antonio’s Victor Wembanyama for the illustrious honor, but his candidacy hinges on one non-negotiable variable: availability.
Thunder star Chet Holmgren can win DPOY if he stays healthy
Last season, a hip fracture limited him to just 32 games, rendering him ineligible for the primary regular season awards under the league’s 65-game minimum rule.
That opened the door for Cleveland’s Evan Mobley to claim the trophy, a scenario Holmgren is determined to avoid this year.
When on the court, Holmgren’s impact is undeniable. Before his injury, he averaged 2.2 blocks per game while anchoring the NBA’s top-ranked defense, which posted a league-best 106.6 defensive rating with him in the lineup.
The 23-year-old has a rare blend of rim protection, mobility, and defensive IQ that allows him to control the paint against bigs and drivers, switch onto guards, and rotate when the ball moves.
When looking at the DPOY race, there's a strong case to be made that, despite what the odds suggest, Holmgren’s biggest competition isn’t necessarily Wembanyama -- it’s his own body.
The Spurs’ phenom presents a historic statistical case, averaging 4.9 stocks, but Holmgren holds a key advantage, and that's team success.
Oklahoma City’s elite defensive system magnifies his impact, whereas Wembanyama’s individual brilliance has yet to translate to team results. These past two years, San Antonio has ranked 25 and 21, respectively, in defensive rating while finishing with sub-35 wins.
Of course, like Chet, Wemby is also a victim of the injury bug and lost out on his first DPOY nod last year due to it. The race between them will likely be decided by who meets the 65-game threshold.
Holmgren’s offseason shows he is keen on just doing that. He added core strength, refined his conditioning, and emphasized recovery, all underlined by the Thunder’s confidence in his long-term health, evidenced by his newly signed $239 million extension.
For Holmgren, the DPOY race isn’t about outperforming Wembanyama -- it’s about outlasting him.
While Wembanyama’s shot-blocking prowess and statistical dominance will undoubtedly capture attention, Holmgren’s candidacy hinges on a different kind of resilience, and that's the ability to stay on the court and anchor a championship-level defense night after night.
Whoever winds up winning the Defensive Player of the Year award between Chet Holmgren and Victor Wembanyama will come down to health, not performance.
With Holmgren as the anchor of Oklahoma City’s elite defense and Wembanyama as a historic shot-blocking force, both will undoubtedly have the statistical resumes needed for consideration. On top of this, both stars also carry durability concerns.
With the NBA’s 65-game minimum in place, the winner won’t be the best defender, but the one who plays enough games to qualify.