The middle of the Western Conference is extremely crowded at this moment. Only the OKC Thunder and Houston Rockets are guaranteed to make the playoffs with less than a week to go.
With so many potential opponents, which teams should Oklahoma City want to play or avoid in the first round? What’s their rooting interest?
For a team to play them, they would need to fall to the Play-In Tournament and secure the eighth seed.
Ranking potential first-round opponents for the OKC Thunder
The Thunder’s potential opponents are sorted into three tiers based on the probability of a potential upset.
Tier 1: The Good
* A matchup against any of these teams in the first round would be fortunate for the Thunder.
9. Phoenix Suns
Since the trade deadline, Phoenix ranks 29th in defensive rating and has allowed the fourth-most wide-open field goal attempts per game. Their inability to even put up a fight at the point of attack bodes extremely well for OKC’s drive-centric offense.
On the other end, Devin Booker carries an enormous offensive creation burden. If he’s shut down, the Suns quickly collapse. The Thunder definitely have the tools to send Booker and, subsequently, the Phoenix as a whole into a spiral.
Across two matchups this season, OKC’s elite perimeter defenders have held Booker to 31 points on 5-for-19 shooting with more turnovers than assists.
Phoenix doesn’t play a physical brand of basketball, so they can’t even try to drag the Thunder into the mud and wear them out. Get the brooms out!
8. Sacramento Kings
Sacramento ranks 12th in offensive rating and 11th in effective field goal percentage post-trade deadline. They run a system that often generates good shot quality, and players like Zach LaVine, Malik Monk, and DeMar DeRozan can catch fire on tough shots.
However, the Kings struggle against physical perimeter defenders and teams that expertly navigate screens. Both traits define the Thunder.
OKC can also hold Domantas Sabonis in check thanks to Chet Holmgren’s length and Isaiah Hartenstein’s strength.
Meanwhile, Sacramento does not protect the rim well, and Keon Ellis is their only high-level guard defender. Look for the Thunder to crank up the pace, light up the scoreboard, and maybe drop a game, if at all.
7. Dallas Mavericks
A healthy Mavericks squad may give the Thunder a run for their money, but Kyrie Irving’s injury completely changes the narrative.
He’s the only player on the roster with the skill to consistently break down OKC’s defense off the dribble and create advantages for himself and others.
Dallas has an abundance of play-finishers, but that doesn’t mean anything without a play-initiator. Their offense is rudderless and defanged sans Irving.
The Mavericks can lean into defense and toughness thanks to a huge frontcourt featuring Anthony Davis, Dereck Lively II, Daniel Gafford, and PJ Washington. It may be enough to steal a game and give the Thunder some bruises, but no legitimate upset potential exists.
Tier 2: The Bad
* Although these teams would make the games very competitive, it could be worse.
6. Memphis Grizzlies
According to Cleaning the Glass, Memphis has outscored opponents by 10.8 points per 100 possessions this season with Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, and Jaren Jackson Jr. on the court together. That trio theoretically provides enough self-creation and shot-making to override playoff defenses.
However, is Zach Edey ready for the spotlight? OKC will force him to defend in space and push the pace, thus seriously exploiting his mobility issues.
Memphis doesn’t have many other trusty options outside of their big three.
Santi Aldama is a stretch-four who doesn’t protect the rim or crash the glass, while Jackson Jr. is best as a roamer and also has rebounding woes.
The Grizzlies’ supporting cast – especially their center rotation – isn’t at the level needed to beat the Thunder, but their stars are dynamic enough to potentially extend the series to six games.
5. Los Angeles Clippers
Only the Thunder boast a better defensive rating than the Clippers. Ivica Zubac is in the mix for Defensive Player of the Year due to his outstanding work inside the paint, while Kris Dunn and Derrick Jones Jr. are both playing at an All-Defensive Team level.
Los Angeles has the tools to bother Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and force OKC to win via jump shots – a strategy that inherently possesses more variance than interior shots.
Meanwhile, Kawhi Leonard is peaking at the right moment and looking like his old self. An offense led by the former Finals MVP’s shot-making, James Harden’s playmaking, and Norman Powell’s long-range shooting gives them a puncher’s chance against the Thunder.
If Los Angeles had a bit more juice off the bench (and a guaranteed healthy Leonard), then they could truly give OKC a scare. Instead, look for this to be a hard-fought, six-game series.
4. Denver Nuggets
There are plenty of reasons to doubt Denver. The defense is lamentable right now; the bench is brutally inefficient; Jamal Murray might miss numerous playoff games with his hamstring injury. And let's not forget about their recent firing of head coach Michael Malone.
But…they have Nikola Jokic, who is arguably in the midst of the best offensive season ever.
Jokic’s ability to generate a great shot on nearly every possession regardless of the supporting cast makes him a terrifying foe to face. He’s capable of overpowering OKC’s defense and at least gives his team a chance to pour in points.
Aaron Gordon’s physicality and potential shot-making from Murray and Michael Porter Jr. are additional bonus points for the Nuggets in this matchup.
In the end, it’s unlikely that Denver survives the non-Jokic minutes, and last postseason displayed how ineffective an injury-hampered Murray can be. The Nuggets’ core should be able to push this series to six games, but their role players will trip them before the finish line.
Tier 3: The Ugly
* There is extreme upset potential here. Sounds the alarms!!!
3. Minnesota Timberwolves
The Wolves check a ton of boxes in terms of ways to beat the Thunder.
They have numerous lengthy, defensive pests to throw at SGA, such as Jaden McDaniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. Minnesota can trot out a jumbo, rim-protecting unit that forces jump-shots and embraces contact, but they are also able to play smaller with Naz Reid as a stretch-five.
On the other end, Anthony Edwards is a rising superstar who has thrived in the playoffs during his short career. He’s capable of stealing games through absurd shot-making stretches. Minnesota can surround Edwards with shooters to space the floor, too.
If Julius Randle was more consistent and reliable as an efficient, secondary scorer, then the Wolves would arguably be OKC’s worst nightmare. However, he has shot 34.4 percent from the field in 15 career playoff games and often torpedoes the offense.
Randle is the X-factor for Minnesota here – an outlier offensive series from him might force a game seven where anything is possible.
2. Golden State Warriors
Golden State is fourth in net rating since the Jimmy Butler acquisition at the trade deadline. His shot-creation and rim-pressure has taken some of the defensive attention off of Stephen Curry. As a result, the four-time champion is averaging 27.8 points per game on superb efficiency post deadline.
Defensively, Butler’s presence provides a much-needed wing next to Draymond Green. The duo, along with veterans like Gary Payton II and Kevon Looney, can do enough to keep the defense from cracking.
Between Curry’s shooting, Butler’s slashing, and Green’s defense, the Warriors have three different factors that could take over games at any moment. If Golden State is humming, this may be a seven-game series, especially if the Warriors’ championship experience and scrappy mentality come into play and perfectly counter the Thunder's lack thereof.
1. Los Angeles Lakers
LeBron James and Luka Doncic – two jumbo playmakers who are able to overwhelm entire defenses through their lethal combination of size, scoring, and passing, and the Lakers have both of them on the same roster.
Additionally, Austin Reaves is an excellent tertiary option who has averaged over 23 points per game since the trade deadline, while Dorian Finney-Smith and Rui Hachimura bring size and shooting on the wing.
Now, the Lakers’ center rotation is abysmal, but they have found tremendous success with small-ball lineups thanks to their shooting and versatility around the superstars.
A playoff series against James, Doncic, and company is the biggest threat to the Thunder this postseason. No other team has a duo with their peaks, and the role players are meshing well.
Essentially, the Lakers are the only opponent in the NBA where Shai Gilgeous-Alexander could be the third-most impactful player on the court for extended stretches.