OKC Thunder superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the reigning back-to-back MVP.
When all is said and done, SGA's career accomplishments should very well reserve a place for him among the NBA's all-time greats.
This year, Shai eyes his third straight Michael Jordan Trophy, which would put him in truly elite company alongside Bill Russell and Larry Bird as the only players to accomplish such a feat.
Shai's prospects of earning such recognition look a bit different this time around, however. Not only is he not the favorite to win, but he's not even in the top three.
At least, that is, according to ESPN.
In late August, the publication's Summer Forecast panel had SGA placing fourth in an MVP poll behind Victor Wembanyama, Nikola Jokic, and Luka Doncic.
It is reasonable to view Wemby as the top candidate. The 22-year-old is coming off a tremendous season, in which he averaged 25.0 points and 11.5 rebounds while earning Defensive Player of the Year honors and taking his young and inexperienced Spurs all the way to the NBA Finals.
The other two, however, may leave Thunder fans scratching their heads.
At first glance, it's easy to think that SGA's dip is simply a result of voter fatigue, thanks to his relentless consistency and commitment to excellence. But there may be a better explanation, and if true, it would make Gilgeous-Alexander extremely happy.
Thunder are in vastly better shape than teams of other MVP hopefuls
It's easy to see why many project both Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic to make serious runs at MVP this year. Both are on sure-fire playoff teams, and they are two of the best players in the world.
But they have another thing in common.: This offseason, both teams arguably got worse.
The Nuggets lost their brightest young star, Peyton Watson, thanks to dreaded second-apron pressures, and former Laker LeBron James went East for the winter.
As a result, both teams look less talented than they were last year.
For reference, Bleacher Report recently put out its win predictions for each team. Both Denver and Los Angeles, according to the article, are projected to win at least six fewer games than last year.
Thunder are (happily) doing SGA no favors in early MVP race
The Thunder, on the other hand, are still projected to finish with a similar win total as last season.
Simply put, Shai still has one of the most complete teams in the NBA around him. Because of this fact, the Thunder won't need him to do everything for them. Luka and Jokic may be required to shoulder most of the burden for their respective teams, though.
It's a trade-off Gilgeous-Alexander will surely make, as he has never shied away from expressing his preference for team success over personal accolades.
If all goes well, the Thunder will be well-positioned to make yet another championship run, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be at the center of it. But talented players like Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Ajay Mitchell, and others will also play a heavy role, and they will likely take much of the heavy lifting off of SGA.
If he walks away from the 2026-27 season with a ring and no MVP Trophy, he will likely be the last one to complain.
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