The OKC Thunder have steamrolled their way through both the 2025-26 regular season and their first 10 games of the NBA Playoffs, losing just 19 times in total while coasting by opponents with an average point-differential of plus-11.4 throughout this stretch.
Along the way, Oklahoma City found themselves coming into a contest listed as underdogs on just four separate occasions, all of which were games where Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had been ruled out.
Friday night's Game 3 marks the first time the odds of winning are stacked against them while having their superstar guard readily available.
According to Underdog NBA's findings, the Thunder are listed as plus-1.5 underdogs heading into San Antonio's home-opener in these Western Conference Finals.
Though certainly an unfamiliar adversity, these odds should come as no surprise to Oklahoma City, as they've already given up home-court advantage following their Game 1 double-overtime loss, while the Spurs have gone 36-10 in both regular-season and playoff action.
Of course, being this bout will be coming directly after Gilgeous-Alexander dropped a whopping 30 points and nine assists on 50.0 percent shooting from the floor in a 122-113 Game 2 win, it's more likely than not that this upcoming contest will be up for grabs until the bitter end.
History suggests Game 3 is a must-win for Thunder
As history shows, Game 3 is in the conversation for being the most influential game on a playoff series' outcome, especially when things are all knotted up heading in.
Per the league's own findings, the winner of the third game in a best-of-seven with the record reading 1-1 has gone on to advance north of 70.0 percent of the time.
What seems to bode well for the Thunder coming into this contest is that they have lost twice in a three-game span just six times throughout the year, with many of those losses coming as a result of Gilgeous-Alexander's absence from the lineup.
Though Oklahoma City may unfortunately find themselves dealing with yet another Jalen Williams hamstring strain, the Spurs are also currently reeling from injuries to key players, which, at worst, makes these absences a moot point and, at best, gives a built-in edge to the Thunder.
After all, OKC has gone 45-10 during the 55 games J-Dub has been forced to miss due to myriad injuries during both the regular season and the playoffs.
Just like the rest of this series is slated to be, expect Game 3 to be an absolute dog fight that goes until the final buzzer sounds.
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