With the NBA trade deadline just under three weeks away, contenders are assessing which assets they can sacrifice in exchange for increased championship equity. The OKC Thunder are no exception, and their treasure chest of draft capital gives them a significant advantage over other franchises.
Oklahoma City will potentially have up to four first-round picks in the 2025 NBA Draft depending on whether protections ultimately activate. How could things ultimately play out for the ball club's loaded arsenal?
Updated look at 2025 Draft picks for Oklahoma City Thunder
Thunder Swap Rights
First, let’s look at the swaps. Thanks to the Paul George and Russell Westbrook trades from the 2019 offseason, OKC has the power to swap its upcoming first-rounder with either the Clippers or Rockets. An important condition: should Houston land in the top ten (extremely unlikely), the swap rights would be nullified.
The draft order for non-lottery teams is determined by regular season record. Based on their current records and future outlooks, the Clippers and Rockets will likely both select somewhere around the mid 20s, such as 23rd or 26th overall. That’s not a huge jump from the Thunder’s pick – which is projected to be 29th or 30th – but it’s not insignificant, either.
Owed First-Round Picks To Thunder
Next, let’s examine their incoming picks.
Utah owes a top-10 protected first to the Thunder as a result of the 2021 Derrick Favors trade. Fans should not expect this selection to convey, though. The tanking Jazz are a bottom-five team in terms of record and have their sights set on Cooper Flagg.
Even if Utah somehow wins their way to the ninth-worst record in the NBA (extremely unlikely), they would still have a 96.9 percent chance of keeping the pick. On the bright side, it becomes a top-eight protected first-round pick in the 2026 draft if it fails to convey.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia owes a top-six protected first for dumping Al Horford’s contract to the Thunder in 2020. This obligation is definitely the cream of the crop for the Thunder.
The 76ers are 15-24, which is the eighth-worst record across the league. For context, that gives them a 73.4 percent chance of receiving either the eighth, ninth, or tenth overall pick.
Philadelphia will struggle to drastically improve their record with superstar Joel Embiid constantly fighting injuries. NBA Insider Shams Charania reported on January 17th that Embiid would “be re-evaluated in 7 to 10 days” due to swelling in his knee.
The Sixers have a brutal next 10 games, so they need him back ASAP. It’s feasible that Philly will emerge from this stretch with two wins and a 17-32 overall record.
76ers: Joel Embiid will be re-evaluated in 7 to 10 days. He will receive treatment to address swelling in his left knee.
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) January 17, 2025
Should the 76ers earn a top-six pick, then they would owe a top-four protected pick in the 2026 draft. Basically, the Thunder likely get a coveted prospect either in this or the next draft.
Finally, Miami owes a lottery protected first.
The Thunder originally received a 2023 Heat first from the Paul George trade, but Miami and OKC agreed to amend it to its current state during the KZ Okpala salary dump in 2022.
Notice a trend? Sam Presti is a genius at morphing cap space into draft capital.
The Heat must miss the playoffs in order to keep their pick. It’s impossible to lean in either direction right now because they project to be a Play-In Tournament team. That means one or two games decide their playoff fate.
If they do make the playoffs, Oklahoma City can expect a first-rounder in the late teens (somewhere around 15th to 19th overall).
If they don’t, then the Heat owe an unprotected first-round pick in the 2026 draft. Given Jimmy Butler’s clear desire to leave the team this offseason, the Thunder could net a quality pick next year.
In summation, the Thunder own the following picks:
- 2025 1st (can swap with Clippers or top 10 protected Rockets)
- 2025 1st via 76ers (top 6 protected)
- 2025 1st via Jazz (top 10 protected)
- 2025 1st via Heat (lottery protected)