Mavericks vs. Thunder NBA expert prediction and odds for Thursday, March 14 (Thunder or nothing?)

The Oklahoma City Thunder are hoping to keep themselves in the conversation for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference on Thursday night when they host the Dallas Mavericks, who are on the second night of a back-to-back. 

Dallas won against the Golden State Warriors (who didn’t have Stephen Curry) on Wednesday night, although it was a slugfest of a game with the Mavs scoring just 109 points. Luka Doncic, who left the game early with a hamstring injury, finished with just 21 points (7-of-18 shooting) – his lowest point total in his last 10 games. 

The Mavs are fighting for position in the play-in tournament conversation in the West, but the team would love to pick up a win to help it move closer to the No. 6 seed. 

OKC has been great at home this season, going 22-11 against the spread, but it failed to cover as a home favorite – losing outright – against the Indiana Pacers on Tuesday. 

Let’s break down the odds and my best bet for this matchup: 

Mavericks vs. Thunder odds, spread and total

Mavericks vs. Thunder how to watch

• Date: Thursday, March 14
• Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Paycom Center
• How to watch (TV): TNT
• Mavs record: 38-28
• Thunder record: 45-20

Mavericks vs. Thunder injury reports

Mavs injury report

• Not submitted yet

Thunder injury report

• Ousmane Dieng – out
• Adam Flagler – out
• Keyontae Johnson – out
• Olivier Sarr – out

Mavericks vs. Thunder key players to watch

Dallas Mavericks

Luka Doncic: The first key is whether or not Doncic will make the trip to play against OKC. Since the team has yet to release an injury report on the second night of a back-to-back, we may not know his status until later in the day. The All-Star guard dominated the Thunder in a 35-point win in the last meeting between these teams. Luka had 32 points, eight rebounds and nine dimes in just 31 minutes in that game. Prior to exiting early against Golden State, Doncic had picked up a triple-double in seven consecutive contests. 

Oklahoma City Thunder

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: SGA was held to 25 points the last team these teams faced off, but it was mainly due to the fact that OKC was blown out, so there was no reason to risk his health late in the game. This season, the All-NBA guard is averaging 31.1 points, 5.6 rebounds and 6.4 assists per game while shooting 54.4 percent from the field and 37.8 percent from 3. 

Mavericks vs. Thunder prediction and pick

This line has moved in a major way towards OKC because of Doncic’s injury. 

If he sits, it’s going to be hard to trust Dallas, as the team is just 3-5 straight up when he sits this season. 

It’s unfortunate for Mavs fans/bettors, as the team is No. 2 in the NBA against the spread on the second night of a back-to-back this season, going 7-3 ATS. 

Things aren’t as positive in the trends department when Dallas is a road dog, though. The team comes into this game with a 6-8 ATS record in that spot, and this is a favorable spot for OKC, who is 19-9 ATS as a home favorite with an average margin of victory of 14.6 points per game in those contests. 

Since Dallas won the last meeting between these teams by so much, it’s hard to bet on the Thunder – especially as 10-point favorites. 

However, oddsmakers are signaling that they expect Doncic to sit – which is extremely reasonable considering how recent his injury was. I’ll wait and see if Doncic’s official status before wagering on this game, but if he’s out, it’s Thunder or nothing. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.