Chet Holmgren problem that could hinder Thunder season

The OKC Thunder became the youngest team in league history to secure a top seed in a conference standings last season by registering a sensational record of 57-25, their third-best since moving to Loud City back in 2008.

With their promising, youth-oriented core headlined by superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and rising studs Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, many are projecting that coach Mark Daigneault's ball club is only bound to achieve greater levels of success over the coming years, and are even boasting the second-best odds of taking the Larry O'Brien Trophy home themselves in 2024-25.

However, though it may appear easy to pencil Oklahoma City in as the league's new "It" team, there are still plenty of factors that are bound to play significant roles in the team's ascension toward ultimate glory, and one, in particular, relates to the expectations surrounding their reigning Rookie of the Year runner-up.

Progression of Chet Holmgren is key to Thunder reaching new heights

Following a phenomenal debut campaign with the Thunder after being red-shirted in 2022-23 due to injury, all eyes are now on Chet Holmgren to take a major leap forward in 2024-25 and beyond.

Unfortunately, this trajectory is a lot easier said than done to stay on, especially for someone who had as many ups and downs as the former second-overall pick did in year one.

Yes, on the surface Holmgren had a sensational overall season last year. Through 82 games played, he went on to drop 16.5 points, 7.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 2.3 blocks on 53.0 percent shooting from the floor and 37.0 percent shooting from deep all while regularly serving as the second or, at worst, third option on this elite squad.

That said, the advanced metrics certainly show flaws that existed throughout this All-Rookie run, particularly during the period of time following All-Star Weekend.

Before the illustrious mid-season break, Holmgren was putting up sensational averages on high-end efficiency, especially on the offensive end where he posted 16.7 points on 53.5 percent shooting from the floor and 39.3 percent shooting from deep.

After the star-studded event, however, the big seemingly regressed in a noteworthy manner.

He dropped off just slightly in the scoring department (16.2 per night), though he found his long-range shooting success fall off rather drastically, as he went on to convert at just a 32.5 percent clip while seeing his usage rate increase during this second-half stretch.

This stark drop-off in efficiency wasn't just limited to the regular season, unfortunately, as his three-point shooting successes plummeted down to a putrid 26.0 percent under the bright lights of the playoffs while simultaneously serving as the second-main long-range threat on the team.

On top of his regression on offense, a major concern regarding the Thunder big is his lack of strength and, in turn, physicality in the frontcourt, as his slender 207-pound frame proved to be severely crippling when going up against bigger opponents on the boards and the block -- Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford absolutely manhandled Holmgren during OKC's second-round demise against Dallas.

His limitations and on-court lapses during the latter half of the season and throughout the playoffs showed that while Holmgren is a tremendous talent who possesses exciting upside, there's still plenty of work he needs to do before the Thunder can legitimately rely on him as the second or third option, which is something they'll need to get over the hump and enter the legitimate contender conversation.

Expectations may be high for the big man heading into his follow-up campaign, but, if he can't shore up these loose ends within his game, Oklahoma City may be right back to where they ended up just a season ago.