Thunder vs. Lakers NBA expert prediction and odds for Monday, March 4 (Can OKC split season series?)
By Peter Dewey
For the fourth and final time this season, the Los Angeles Lakers face the Oklahoma City Thunder.
After a bad loss early in the season to OKC, the Lakers have won two straight, and have a chance to clinch the season series on Monday night.
OKC and Los Angeles could find themselves matched up in the first round of the playoffs this season depending on how the final standings shake out, so this is a big game for both teams to see how they stack up.
OKC played the Phoenix Suns – in Phoenix – on Sunday night and the team picked up a huge win to move to the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference on the back of a 35-point game from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
The Lakers, on the other hand, saw LeBron James’ record-breaking performance (first player to 40K points), spoiled on Saturday in a loss to the Denver Nuggets.
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Here’s a look at the latest odds and my best bet for this matchup.
Thunder vs. Lakers odds, spread and total
Thunder vs. Lakers how to watch
- Date: Monday, March 4
- Time: 10:30 p.m. EST
- Venue: Crypto.com Arena
- How to watch (TV): Bally Sports Southwest, Spectrum SportsNet, NBA TV
- Thunder record: 42-18
- Lakers record: 33-29
Thunder vs. Lakers injury reports
Thunder injury report
- Not submitted yet
Lakers injury report
- Colin Castleton – out
- Anthony Davis – probable
- LeBron James – questionable
- Cam Reddish – probable
- Jarred Vanderbilt – out
- Christian Wood – out
- Gabe Vincent – out
Thunder vs. Lakers key players to watch
Oklahoma City Thunder
Jalen Williams: Second-year forward Jalen Williams is having a great season, averaging 19.3 points per game while shooting 54.4 percent from the field and 44.7 percent from beyond the arc. He has been elite against the Lakers, scoring 21, 28, and 25 points in their three meetings this season.
Los Angeles Lakers
LeBron James: The NBA’s all-time leading scorer has been on fire as of late. James is averaging 27.0 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 8.8 assists per game over his last 10 games, clearing 20 points in each matchup. He had a 40-point game in one of the Lakers’ two wins against OKC this season.
Thunder vs. Lakers prediction and pick
Few trends support Oklahoma City in this game, and I wouldn't be shocked if the team won this game outright.
In the three meetings between these teams this season, OKC has a 23-point win, nine-point loss, and seven-point loss. The team has played the Lakers well in each loss, and the Thunder have shown all season that they thrive on the second night of back-to-backs, going 7-3 against the spread.
The Thunder are also a league-best 7-3-1 against the spread as road underdogs, while the Lakers haven’t exactly been great against the spread at home, going 13-17 this season.
Los Angeles has played better as of late, but this OKC team has been undervalued all season for the profile it has put together. The Thunder rank third in offensive rating, fourth in defensive rating, and second in net rating.
What about Los Angeles? Well, the Lakers are just 17th, 17th, and 19th in those respective categories. I can’t pass up the Thunder as road dogs in a matchup that I believe they should be favored in.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.