Up until about a week ago, almost everyone around the league would've had an easy answer when you asked them who this season's MVP is. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Although he missed a stretch around the All-Star Break with an abdominal strain, Gilgeous-Alexander has reached insane heights with his production this season. Through 62 games, he's averaged 31.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 6.6 assists while knocking down 55.3% of his attempts from the field. Based on both individual and team performance, Gilgeous-Alexander should already have the award locked up.
But Victor Wembanyama recently stated his case for MVP, and it's turning some heads. Whether it's realistic or not, Gilgeous-Alexander's hold on the award suddenly feels threatened.
The San Antonio Spurs currently sit 2.5 games back of the Thunder for the first seed in the Western Conference. Both teams have less than 10 games remaining on the schedule. If the Spurs are somehow able to swoop in and steal the one-seed, Wembanyama's MVP case could suddenly gain even more steam.
For the most part, San Antonio's schedule for the remainder of the season is frighteningly easy. But they have two matchups with the Denver Nuggets looming, and Nikola Jokic could, therefore, surprisingly be the hero of Gilgeous-Alexander's MVP campaign. Ironic, isn't it?
Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets could be all that stands between Victor Wembanyama and the MVP award
Let's acknowledge first that Wembanyama does have a serious case. The Spurs have surged this season to unpredictable heights. Through 58 games, Wembanyama is averaging 24.2 points, 11.2 rebounds, three assists, and a league-leading 3.1 blocks. His defensive impact is unmatched across the NBA.
The Thunder have their work cut out for them over the remainder of the regular season. Their next three matchups will be against the Detroit Pistons, the New York Knicks, and the Los Angeles Lakers. Even with Cade Cunningham out, this will be a tough stretch.
San Antonio, meanwhile, will play most of their remaining games against tanking or Play-In teams. Apart from their two matchups against Denver, that is.
The Spurs are 1-1 this season against the Nuggets, with Jokic posting 31 points in their loss and just 21 points in their victory.
For most of this season (and last), the clear MVP debate was between Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokic. It's a comparison that has pervaded the minds of the NBA fanbase at large over the past two years.
Now, with how slim the margins are for error, even one loss to the Nuggets could put them out of reach of the one-seed, eliminating virtually any chance Wembanyama has of usurping Gilgeous-Alexander. As ironic as it is, therefore, the Thunder could be counting on Denver in this final stretch of the season.