The Oklahoma City Thunder, rightly, aren't worried about individual awards. Their mindset has always very clearly been centered on team success. With the playoffs looimng, it's certain their focus is on accomplishing the impossible in the modern NBA: a championship repeat.
But it's the time of year where fans and analysts' interests center on award voting. It is a player and narrative-centric league, after all.
In reality, the races for awards like Rookie of the Year and Sixth Man of the Year are much tighter and possess more intrigue. But the race for MVP, which was thought to be settled when the Denver Nuggets began to struggle towards the start of the new year, has recently taken on new life.
Victor Wembanyama publicly made his case for the award. But Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has since responded— not with words, but with his performance. He's averaged 32.8 points on 56.6% shooting over his last six games. The Thunder are 5-1 in that span.
If you take a look at the advanced stats, however, Wembanyama still has a solid case. The ultimate trump card for Gilgeous-Alexander, therefore, rests in an often overlooked statistic.
He simply has more minutes played.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has had the greater impact this season
The race for MVP, from a perspective of all-around impact and production, is closer than most Oklahoma City fans would like to admit.
Gilgeous-Alexander has the edge in virtually all scoring categories. Through 64 games, he's averaging 31.6 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 6.5 assists while shooting 38.2% from 3-point range. The Thunder have a 122 offensive rating when he's been on the court.
But Wembanyama has the defensive stats to make his case interesting. He's averaging a league-leading 3.1 blocks. Opponents are shooting just 41.8% from the field with Wembanyama as the primary defender.
Even in estimated plus-minus, a stat aggregated by Dunks & Threes intended to measure overall impact, the pair are closely tied. Gilgeous-Alexander has an estimated plus-minus of 8.2 this season, while Wembanyama has posted a mark of 8.3.
To make our case, therefore, we'll turn briefly to Fred Katz of The Athletic. In his piece detailing the awards ballots he's most anxious about, he outlined his thoughts on some of the more contentious races. But he quickly adjourned the MVP race for one simple reason:
"I will likely place Wembanyama lower on my ballot than the average voter does, mostly because of playing time. Aggregate production matters, and Wembanyama has played 400 to 500 fewer minutes than Gilgeous-Alexander, Jokić or Luka Dončić have."- Fred Katz
Despite having a similar number of games played— Gilgeous-Alexander has 64, while Wembanyama has 60— their minutes totals are not close. Gilgeous-Alexander has played a total of 2,147, while Wembanyama has played a total of 1,755.
It's not as though Gilgeous-Alexander has been some freak of availability this season. He missed nine games around the All-Star Break with an abdominal strain. But Wembanyama has been on a minutes restriction for most of the season as a result of a calf strain he suffered in November. He's played less than 30 minutes in over half of his appearances.
The edge in this race therefore goes to Gilgeous-Alexander. If Wembanyama can remain healthy, it's not an edge that will carry into future seasons. But Gilgeous-Alexander's case, at the very least, is undeniable this season.