The Oklahoma City Thunder, by virtually all metrics, are still positioned as the NBA's championship favorites this season.
With their win over the Golden State Warriors on Saturday night, they became the first team to reach 50 wins. They possess the best defensive rating and the best net rating in the NBA, not to mention the leading MVP candidate in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
But they've been bitten hard by the injury bug throughout the regular season. Many of these losses are survivable for a team as deep as they are. Their ability to cycle through the role players in their rotation will prove to be absolutely vital as the playoffs approach.
One absence, however, represents an irreplaceable gap. Jalen Williams re-aggravated his hamstring injury before the All-Star Break. He remains without a definite timetable for his return, and he has not touched the court since Feb. 11.
With the health and consistency issues Williams has had this season, the Thunder frankly cannot depend upon him to be their second option in the postseason. Oklahoma City's championship hopes will be determined by Gilgeous-Alexander's ability to operate without him.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be tested tremendously if Jalen Williams can't get back to full health
So far this season, Gilgeous-Alexander has surpassed even the heights of his historic 2024-25 campaign. Through 52 games, he's averaged 31.7 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 6.5 assists while knocking down 38.4% of his attempts from beyond the arc.
In many ways, Gilgeous-Alexander is an unstoppable force. With both Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams on the court this season, Oklahoma City has a net rating of 12, per databallr. With just Gilgeous-Alexander on the court, that number shoots up to 16.9. He has consistently found a way to be productive even when all of the opponent's defensive attention is focused upon him.
But it's also possible to limit him, at times, with double teams. These can be particularly effective when Williams is off the court or not playing at the top of his game. Both the New York Knicks and the Warriors, in recent matchups, have been able to stem the tide somewhat by strategically selling out on Gilgeous-Alexander in the halfcourt.
In the playoffs, this attention and intensity will only ramp up. It seems odd to say that Gilgeous-Alexander has another leap to take, but the Thunder's offense could very well be entirely dependent upon his ability to overcome this pressure when they enter the postseason.
He'll need to make the right plays, opting to pass out of these scenarios when a drive to the rim is impossible. It will, undoubtedly, represent a new test for the superstar— one that could determine Oklahoma City's championship fate.