Despite producing one of the greatest individual seasons in NBA history, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander isn't expected to be a favorite for MVP in 2025-26. It's the projection that ESPN put forth with results that revealed a decline in projected votes that would realistically put him on the outside looking in.
GIlgeous-Alexander would still be third in MVP voting based on ESPN's projection, but history shows that three-player races are rarely an actuality.
ESPN recently published its NBA Summer Forecast, during which it was revealed that Gilgeous-Alexander received the third-most votes to win MVP in 2025-26. It's one thing to believe he won't go back-to-back, but fresh off of an all-time great season, a third-place projection is difficult to stomach.
Not only was Gilgeous-Alexander third in voting, but he received 37 fewer points than Nikola Jokic and 16 less than Luka Doncic. Ramona Shelburne of ESPN explained:
"[Jokic] came in as a heavy favorite to win for a fourth time in our preseason survey, almost doubling the votes for SGA to repeat. Voters also seemed to be impressed by Luka Doncic's offseason transformation as the svelte version of the Los Angeles Lakers point guard came in second in early voting. Team success always plays a factor in voting, which is probably why SGA has slipped to third here. In other words, he already elevated the Thunder to a championship level and was recognized as the MVP for doing it."
For what it's worth: Giannis Antetokounmpo finished third in MVP voting in 2024-25, trailing Gilgeous-Alexander by 443 points and failing to receive a single first-place vote.
ESPN projects Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will finish third in MVP voting
Finishing third in MVP voting is effectively the same as not being a viable candidate. In fact, every player who has finished third or lower in MVP voting since 2005-06 has received at least 56 fewer first-place votes than the eventual award winner.
Steve Nash received 57 out of 125 first-place votes that season, with Kobe Bryant securing a commendable 22—still making for a 35-vote difference.
The reason this is such a shocking thought to process has nothing to do with Doncic or Jokic being realistic candidates. Jokic is a three-time MVP, while Doncic is a former scoring champion and five-time All-NBA First Team honoree.
Gilgeous-Alexander, however, is coming off of a season in which he won a championship, the Finals MVP and regular-season MVP awards, and a scoring title.
In the process, Gilgeous-Alexander joined Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Michael Jordan, and Shaquille O'Neal as the only players in NBA history to secure each of those accolades in the same season. That company alone should make him a heavy favorite to repeat as MVP in 2025-26.
Unfortunately, the voting process reveals the harsh reality about Gilgeous-Alexander's success: No matter what he does, his greatness is steadily under-appreciated.
Thunder fans know as well as anyone that this is the era of the triple-double, but Gilgeous-Alexander's steady pace as a dominant scorer can't be overlooked. He not only set the pace during the regular season, but picked up where he left off during the playoffs and did what superstars are supposed to do: Prove their success can translate.
Perhaps there's something to say about narratives, statistics, and improvements, but one would think that no one has more momentum than Gilgeous-Alexander to win MVP in 2025-26.