Oklahoma City Thunder star Chet Holmgren has a simple question to answer in 2025-26: Can he put longstanding injury issues behind him? For as talented as he is, it's the one area of uncertainty that continues to hang over his head and deter some from projecting back-to-back titles for the Thunder.
Whether fair or foul, Oklahoma City's dynastic dreams effectively boil down to whether or not Holmgren can rewrite the narrative of his career.
Holmgren missed the entire 2022-23 season after suffering a Lisfranc injury at the CrawsOver Pro-Am event. He played all 82 games in 2023-24, however, finishing second in Rookie of the Year voting and instantly justifying the unicorn hype.
Holmgren finished the 2023-24 season averaging 16.5 points, 7.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 2.3 blocks, 1.6 offensive boards, and 1.6 three-point field goals made per game on .530/.370/.793 shooting.
Holmgren continued to excel on both ends of the floor in 2024-25. He averaged 15.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 2.2 blocks, 1.5 offensive boards, and 1.4 three-point field goals made in just 27.4 minutes per game, shooting at a clip of .490/.379/.754.
Unfortunately, Holmgren also missed 50 regular-season games—bringing his tally to 114 appearances and 132 absences through three years.
Chet Holmgren's injury history is the Thunder's ultimate X-Factor
The Thunder clearly believe that Holmgren's injury woes are at least generally behind him. He's entering the final season of his rookie-scale contract and has already signed a five-year, $239,934,400 extension that will keep him in Oklahoma City into the next decade.
That massive investment is a clear reflection of the franchise's confidence in Holmgren's ability to continue developing into the superstar he has the potential to become.
Doing so would, of course, require Holmgren to remain healthy on a consistent enough basis for his impact to be maximized. It's worth noting that he's appeared in 114 of his past 164 games, which equates to 57 outings per season.
That's not necessarily ideal, but the Thunder could potentially live with having Holmgren for roughly 60 regular-season games per year if he's available for the entire postseason.
That average removes the context of missing the entire 2022-23 campaign, however, and masks the impact of 50 absences in 2024-25. There is reason for optimism, as Holmgren has appeared in all 33 of the Thunder's playoff games over the past two seasons.
One simply can't overstate the importance of Holmgren remaining healthy to the Thunder's dreams of adding to their championship tally.
On the court, Holmgren's defensive presence and offensive versatility are essential elements of Oklahoma City's system. Off of it, his salary projects to consume more than 25 percent of the Thunder's available cap space once his extension begins.
Unfortunately, there's no way for Holmgren to ease the concerns over his injury history until the 2025-26 season begins and he simply remains healthy.