Oklahoma City Thunder big man Chet Holmgren has seemingly taken a step forward as a scorer in 2025-26. He's posting career-best numbers in points per game and field goal percentage, and has thus earned praise for reaching the next stage in his offensive evolution.
Holmgren has seemingly taken that process to another level over the past month or so, but there are still reasons to be skeptical of how sincere his progress is.
Holmgren is averaging 17.2 points per game on 55.7 percent shooting from the field. He's also burying 36.2 percent of his three-point field goals and 79.2 percent of his free throws, which makes him one of the most well-rounded scoring big men in the NBA.
For perspective: Holmgren is on pace to join Nikola Jokic as the only power forwards or centers averaging at least 17.0 points on .550/.350/.750 shooting or better in 2025-26.
Fresh off of posting 30 points, 14 rebounds, four blocks, and two steals in a win over the LA Clippers, Holmgren looks better than ever. It's a welcome development, as he failed to produce a single 20-point game in February and now has five since Mar. 1.
Though it's encouraging to see Holmgren excel in this regard, there's one piece of context that may cause trepidation: He isn't actually shooting any more frequently than in previous seasons.
Chet Holmgren is far more efficient, but his volume is generally the same
Holmgren attempted 11.6 field goal attempts in 29.4 minutes per game in 2023-24 and 10.7 in 27.4 minutes per contest in 2024-25. He's still in that very range in 2025-26 with averages of 11.3 field goal attempts in 28.9 minutes per game.
Holmgren is also attempting 4.1 free throws per game in 2025-26 compared to 4.2 a season ago and 3.4 during the 2023-24 campaign.
Furthermore, Holmgren is posting career-low averages in assists per game and assists per 36 minutes. With this in mind, it's fair to question if he's actually become more assertive or if he's simply converting with more efficiency when his number is called.
To make matters worse, each of the five games during which Holmgren has scored fewer than 10 points this season have been against playoff or play-in teams—as were five of his six least efficient shooting performances.
Perhaps this is much ado about nothing, as Holmgren deserves praise for making the most of his opportunities as a scorer. He's also getting hot right before the playoffs, which is an encouraging sign that he can sustain this quality once the postseason begins.
One simply can't help but wonder if Holmgren would actually assert himself in a playoff game where his scoring could prove to be the difference between winning and losing.