OKC Must Find a Way to Believe in Dion Waiters
Dion Waiters is an enigma. When you watch him play you can see the obvious talent he possesses. You marvel at the quickness and athleticism that is packed into such a strong, physical frame. Unfortunately, you also see the lapses in mental judgment that must make him maddening to coach. You see the delusional, inflated self-belief that leads him to take long twos at an alarming rate and at the expense of his teammates. You see a player with the physical frame to allow him to be a plus defender but whose lack of focus gives up too many easy buckets.
Dion Waiters is an easy player for Thunder fans to write off. So how can Sam Presti, Billy Donovan and Thunder fans convince themselves to believe in this mercurial talent?
If you focus on the positives, there is plenty to like. On a team bereft of talented two-way players capable of playing shooting guard, Waiters has an opportunity to fill a void. Offensively he can be the focal point of a team for stretches. In fact, a look at his advanced statistics from Basketball-Reference.com show that over his brief career, his best PER seasons have come with his highest usage rates.
These numbers back up what is plain to see while watching him. If he is focused, Waiters can be really hard to stop for opposing defenses. His body type makes him a really effective driver to the basket who can finish through contact at the rim. Where he gets in trouble is when he becomes overly reliant on his jump shooting ability. If Donovan wants to get the best out of Waiters, he should let him be the focal point of the second unit offense and coach him out of contested perimeter jump shots. While this has been impossible for his previous coaches, it’s really the only option for Donovan and Waiters.
Defensively, there aren’t as many positive numbers to back up what we can see on the floor. When he’s locked in, Waiters can be a plus defender. Unfortunately, statistics show he’s never managed to do this for a season. We can see stretches where he’s been good, but he’s been below average every year of his career. Again, to believe in Waiters you have to buy in to the “Donovan Effect”, getting Waiters to focus in a way that no other coach has.
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It’s clear to see that Thunder fans must trust that Donovan can coach Waiters better than anyone ever has. To exceed expectations, Waiters would need to limit his offensive game to driving to the basket and creating for others while on defense, his focus must improve. The good news is that there’s nothing physically challenging about what Waiters must do to succeed; it’s all mental.
You must go on faith and assume Donovan can reach Waiters, which strikes me as a bit naive in the face of historical data, or you can go with perhaps the game’s most motivating factor: money. This is a make or break year for Waiters. If he fails and becomes buried on the Thunder bench, OKC will let him walk in free agency and he may really struggle to find a quality deal in free agency next summer.
If he’s able to play a vital role, even if it’s off the bench, for the Thunder, he will walk into the most lucrative summer in NBA history as a valuable commodity. Suspend your disbelief for a moment and imagine a world where Waiters is sixth man of the year and helps the Thunder win a title. That player might command something close to a max contract next year. If you want to believe in Waiters, bet on him understanding the financial ramifications of the season for him.
Time will tell if Waiters can reclaim his career this year with the Thunder. History tells us that a player making such a dramatic philosophical shift at this point in his career is exceedingly rare. Maybe, just maybe Waiters can turn the corner though. He’s got the physical gifts and every financial incentive in the world to do so.