Views from OKC: Grading the Thunder’s chances of pulling off an upset

Views from OKC is a public diary about the current state of the OKC Thunder. Today we take a look at the Thunder’s chances of pulling off an upset.

Sunday is over with. Let it go.

By all accounts the Thunder have. Look at these photos from Monday’s practice:

They look loose, happy even. In Nick Gallo’s practice report they were saying all the right things – pick & roll coverage needs to change, the energy needs to pick up and communication must be a key. But will they execute? That’s the unknown.

All season the Thunder have shown spurts of greatness and spurts of mediocrity. They’ve had three-game losing streaks coupled with three-game winning streaks. Sometimes they flip the switch mid-game like the late-March San Antonio game.

MUST READ: Five takeaways from the Game One loss

It’s possible that Oklahoma City comes out like they did against Memphis on February 3rd. Two days after losing by 28 points at home to the Chicago Bulls, the Thunder turned around and beat a better Memphis team by 12.

It’s also possible that Oklahoma City comes out like they did against Golden State on January 18th. Two days after losing by 22 to the Los Angeles Clippers, the Thunder got run out the gym again, this time by 21.

I’ve said this all season, but it must be repeated; the inconsistencies of this team makes sense. They are the youngest playoff team after adjusting to minutes. Over half of the roster wasn’t on last year’s playoff team.

So what are their chances? According to ESPN BPI’s ranking they have a 12% chance of taking the series. Sadly that sounds about right. There’s a reason this Houston team won more games than the defending champs.

Related Story: Five reasons the Thunder can win this series

To win this series Oklahoma City is going to have to make this series dirty. They can’t let Houston’s big men dictate this game; that’s our strength. If Billy Donovan is going to stick with Steven Adams and Taj Gibson they need to go out and prove a point in the first three minutes of the game.

This isn’t going to cut it.

Don’t get me wrong I love that play. But the Big Kiwi is doing that to a guard – I want to see him pick on someone his own size. I’m not asking for any Draymond Green kicking action or a cheap shot after a play is over. Keep it clean and strictly during the game. It’s how Adams got by to start his career, yet he hasn’t played with that grittiness this season. This play shows most of Adams’ problems within three seconds:

1. He doesn’t look to initiate contact and box Clint Capela out. Instead he stands under the rim  (which is rarely where a long jumper falls as it is) and tries to out jump Capela. That’s not his game, brute strength is.
2. Once Capela gets the ball Adams just stands there even though Andre Roberson clearly was going to take him. He got caught ball-watching, which leads to…

Adams was standing in the paint below the rim and looking at the streaking Trevor Ariza before he even crossed the free throw line/touched the ball. Yet Ariza got an easy dunk. That has everything to do with Adams’ slow reaction time and his positioning. Instead of sliding over he takes a step at Ariza and tries to block him from the side.

That’s when Adams can use his size to his advantage and prove a point. He has to be the enforcer, and Gibson needs to be right there with him. This series isn’t going to be won playing Houston’s way; it’s going to be won Oklahoma City’s way.

So what are there chances of winning this series?

Get back to me after the first quarter Wednesday night.

Next Up: Thunder player grades from the regular season