Earlier this week, Enes Kanter signed an offer sheet for his maximum contract* of four years worth around $70 million. However, because of a complicated measure in the NBA’s so-called restricted free agency, the Thunder still hold all the power to determine what uniform Kanter will be wearing next season.
Players coming off their rookie contracts enter a different type of free agency than those who have served more time in the league. Kevin Durant‘s situation next summer – and Russell Westbrook‘s the following summer – are a different situation than what Kanter is going through now.
Oklahoma City extended a qualifying offer of about $7.5 million to Kanter making him a restricted free agent. At the time, Kanter had three choices: he could sign the one-year qualifying offer making him an unrestricted free agent next summer, he could negotiate a different contract with Oklahoma City or he could test the waters and sign an offer sheet from another team knowing that Oklahoma City had the right to match whatever terms he signed.
Kanter chose the third option and signed his offer sheet with the Blazers. With the Blazers acquisitions this summer (Noah Vonleh, Al-Farouq Aminu, Mason Plumlee and Ed Davis), they probably had no intentions of actually signing Kanter, but instead wanted to force Oklahoma City to pay Kanter his maximum contract and not settle for a penny less.
Signing Kanter to this contract puts an immense amount of pressure on Oklahoma City. They have two options moving forward, and each has its own set of drawbacks.
The first option for the Thunder is to match the contract that Kanter signed with the Blazers. Kanter averaged 19 points and 11 rebounds per game on just under 57 percent shooting in his 26 games in the Thunder blue last season. The team hasn’t had a player with Kanter’s skill in the low post since moving to Oklahoma City, and inking him to a four-year deal would show Durant and Westbrook that the management is willing to spend significant money to improve the team.
Unfortunately for Kanter, there is another side of the floor. By almost every advanced metric, Kanter was the worst defensive center last season. According to basketball-reference.com, Kanter had a -2.3 defensive box plus minus (DBPM) last season, far worse than Anthony Tolliver who ranked second to last among qualifying centers (-1.1). ESPN.com’s defensive real plus minus stat (DRPM) had him ranked 73rd of 73 qualifying centers with a -3.87 rating last season.
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The other option for the Thunder is to let Kanter sign with Portland. Doing this could have an effect on signing Durant next summer. Since the infamous James Harden trade, some have been wondering what it would be like to have four stars in their prime suited up for this team. Although there seem to be more and more people “remembering” that they were vehemently against the trade with more time passing, there is some fear to appearing cheap to the 2013-2014 MVP. Letting Kanter walk and having another season fall short of the ultimate goal could be the final straw for Durant in Oklahoma City.
The other side to not matching Kanter is the flexibility that comes with next year’s salary cap. Although the Thunder wouldn’t have money to significantly improve the team next season (they are just over the salary cap before Kanter’s contract, which I detailed here), they would have room to add another key free agent in the summer of 2016, if they decide against Kanter. However, none of that matters if Durant is put off by the next season’s outcome.
Sam Presti and the rest of the Thunder organization have 72 hours from the time that they receive the offer sheet from the Blazers to decide whether or not they want to match the offer. Personal feelings aside, this could be the first ripple effect that determines the future of the Oklahoma City Thunder.
*Due to the number of years in the league (between 0-6), Kanter’s maximum contract is 25 percent of the salary cap ($70 million), or $17.5 million for his first season. Players with 7-10 years of service have a maximum contract of 30 percent of the salary cap ($21 million this season), and players with more than 10 years of service have a maximum contract of 35 percent of the cap ($24.5 million this season).
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