OKC Thunder – Handful of games will determine playoff seeds
Having secured the sixth seed the OKC Thunder could still hypothetically finish with home court in the first round.
The prospect of a first round matchup of the OKC Thunder versus Houston Rockets has analysts and fans drooling. First of all, the top two MVP candidates Russell Westbrook and James Harden would be matched up against each other. Moreover, there is that little matter of Patrick Beverley and his punk move from the 2012-13 campaign which ended Westbrook’s pristine iron man run.
A Rockets versus Thunder first round does seem inevitable, however there remains an outside chance for OKC to move up to fifth or fourth to face either the Jazz or Clippers. OKC and Utah each have four games remaining while the Clippers have three.
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Let’s break down how the OKC Thunder could move up one or two spots on the playoff ladder:
OKC Thunder and Opponents Current Record/Seeds:
Utah Jazz currently hold the home court fourth seed with a 48-30 record
L.A. Clippers sit in the fifth seed with a 48-31 record
OKC Thunder hold the sixth seed with a 45-33 record
Games Remaining:
Utah Jazz:
- Friday, April 7 host the Minnesota Timberwolves
- Saturday, April 8 on road versus Portland Trail Blazers
- Monday, April 10 on road against Golden State Warriors
- Wednesday, April 12 host San Antonio Spurs to close out season
L.A. Clippers:
- Saturday, April 8 final road game versus San Antonio Spurs
- Monday, April 10 play host to Houston Rockets
- Wednesday, April 12 close out the season hosting the Sacramento Kings
OKC Thunder:
- Friday, April 7 at Phoenix Suns
- Sunday, April 9 at Denver Nuggets
- Tuesday, April 11 at Minnesota Timberwolves
- Wednesday, April 12 host Denver Nuggets in final game of season
OKC Thunder Record versus Opponents:
Against Clippers: the teams split the season series
Against Jazz: OKC hold the tiebreak by virtue of winning the season series 3-1
LA vs Jazz: the Clippers hold the tiebreak versus the Jazz having won the season series 3-1
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What Needs to Happen for OKC to Move Up:
With a record of 45-33 the best record the OKC Thunder can finish with is 49-33. For a move up the ladder to occur OKC would require assistance from their opponents.
To move ahead of Clippers:
The Clippers boast 3 additional wins over the Thunder and have an extra game played in the bank. LA’s magic number is 50 wins. Should they win two of their final three games the Thunder won’t be able to catch them.
Conversely if LA loses all three games and the Thunder win out they move ahead into the fifth seed. Or, if LA lose two games and the Thunder win out they would tie with 49 wins each. In this scenario OKC also move ahead by virtue of winning the tie break. Although the teams tied the season series winning out would mean the Thunder would register an 11-5 divisional record thereby giving them the edge.
To move ahead of the Jazz:
Catching the Jazz also requires help from Utah. Like the Thunder the Jazz have 4 games remaining featuring a more difficult opponent list. The problem is Golden State and San Antonio may rest players since they have already secured their seeds. Utah’s two other games feature the Wolves and Blazers with the latter being the most inspired to win.
For the Thunder to be in this equation they first need to make up the three additional wins and hope the Jazz lose at least three of their remaining four games. There is a bit more leeway with the Jazz because the Thunder won the season series so a tie would give OKC the nod in the tiebreak.
Ultimately it’s unlikely (even if the Thunder win out) both LA and Utah will lose three games a piece, but theoretically it is plausible.
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Remainder of Western Conference:
Golden State Warriors:
(65-14) have secured the first overall seed in both the Western Conference and overall.
San Antonio Spurs:
(60-18) have secured the second seed
Houston Rockets:
(53-25) have secured the third seed
Seeds 4 through 6:
As per above the Jazz, Clippers and Thunder will need to finish out their games to determine seeding.
Seeds 7 and 8:
Three teams remain in the hunt for these two seeds.
- The Memphis Grizzlies have secured a playoff berth, but not their seed. Since they lost the season series to the Trail Blazers if they Portland holds the tiebreak. If Memphis wins one of their final three games they will secure the 7 seed. With three lottery teams on tap (Knicks, Pistons and Mavericks) it seems inevitable the Grizzlies will cement the seven seed.
- Portland currently sit in the final seed with 3 games to play against the Jazz, Spurs and Pelicans all at home. The Blazers hold the tiebreak versus both the Grizzlies and Nuggets. While it’s unlikely they’ll catch the Grizzlies if they can win two more games they’ll secure the eighth seed.
- Denver sits a game and a half back of Portland, but have an extra game in hand to play. They’ll face the Thunder twice in a home and home series as well as the Mavericks and Pelicans. To capture the final playoff berth they need to move ahead of the Blazers in win totals given the tiebreak situation. For this to occur the Nuggets can’t lose more than one of their final four games and they’ll still need the Blazers to lose at least two of three remaining games.
Eastern Conference:
Like the Western Conference nine teams remain in contention for playoff seeds. But, unlike the West the order of where teams will finish remains very much up in the air. There are 3 distinct segments.
Home Court Seeds:
Cleveland Cavaliers, Boston Celtics, Toronto Raptors and Washington Wizards have all secured home court seeds. The order of who’ll finish where will require the final games to be played out.
Cavaliers:
Cleveland can finish no lower than second. Their 4 games consist of a home and home series versus Atlanta, a road game versus Miami and a closing game versus the Raptors. Although all 3 teams are fighting for playoff positioning depending on what happens on a nightly basis it could change the dynamics of whether the Cavs rest players. By winning two games the Cavs will secure the East’s top seed.
Celtics:
Boston still have a shot to finish first, but would need help from the Cavs who sit 1.5 games ahead with 2 fewer losses. Since the Cavs hold the tiebreak Boston will need to finish one game ahead of Cleveland to capture first place. Even if Boston win out versus the Hornets, Nets and Bucks it’s unlikely the Cavs won’t win two more.
Of the four Eastern home court seeds Boston is arguably in the most precarious position. Toronto holds the tiebreak versus the Celtics and while it’s unlikely the Raptors would catch them if the Raptors were to tie Boston they would take the second seed from Boston. Furthermore, the Celtics have lost 2 games in-a-row and are 6-4 in their last 10 games. Meanwhile the Raptors boast the East’s best record (8-2) in their last ten games and welcomed Kyle Lowry back in their last outing. If Toronto wins out and Boston loses 2 they fall down the ladder.
The situation between the Wizards and Celtics is more complex since they split their season series. Both teams could potentially win their divisions requiring the next tie break level to be utilized. Boston has a 10-5 divisional record while Washington sits at 8-6. If Boston beats the Nets the Wiz will be unable to match them in the event of a tie.
Raptors:
Of all the East seeds the Raptors appear to be hitting the perfect balance of momentum and luck at the right time. Toronto boasts the best East record in the past ten games. The addition of Serge Ibaka and P.J.Tucker have vaulted the Raptors into the top 10 defensive ranks (top 4 post All-Star break). And, Kyle Lowry returned looking better than when he left. Toronto can finish as high as second or low as fourth. Currently seeded third they own tiebreaks versus both the Celtics and Wizards. It is a long shot they can finish second but feasible (see above Celtics breakdown). To remain ahead of the Wizards the only need to tie them. Both teams have 3 games remaining with the Raptors playing the Heat, Knicks and Cavs.
The final game of the of the season versus the Cavs could have several different variables. If Cleveland secure first prior to the 12th it’s likely they’ll rest their big 3. If Boston has secured second and Toronto is ensured a tie with Washington it’s also likely the Raptors will rest their core unit. Expect the Raptors to make every effort to beat Miami tonight (final home game for Toronto) and Knicks Sunday. With the Heat playing the Wizards twice and still fighting for a playoff berth it seems unlikely they will lose all three games. Raps fans will hope Miami get one (or both against the Wizards).
Wizards:
Like the Raptors, Washington can finish as high as second and as low as fourth. They need to beat Toronto by a game to overtake them. As for the Celtics see above break down. Washington have a tough 3-game close out considering they face the playoff hunting Heat twice.
Bottom Half of Bracket:
Five teams are competing for the bottom four seeds in the East with 2 games separating them. In order of fifth through ninth here’s their record, remaining games and tie break scenarios:
Atlanta Hawks ( 40-38)
Remaining Games: Home and Home series versus Cavs, host Hornets and at Pacers.
Tiebreak: Yes versus Bucks, Bulls and Heat . Although they split series with Heat their divisional record gives the edge to Miami. The final game of the season will determine who owns the tiebreak versus the Pacers. If Indy wins to split the series they will take the tiebreak base on a better divisional record.
Milwaukee Bucks (40-39):
Remaining Games: 76ers, at Hornets and versus Celtics.
Tiebreak: Yes vs. Pacers and Bulls, No vs. Heat and Hawks
Chicago Bulls (39-40)
Remaining Games: boast the easiest schedule on paper with a home and home series versus the Nets and host the Magic.
Tiebreak: Yes over Heat and Pacers via the season series or divisional record. No against Bucks and Hawks.
Indiana Pacers (39-40)
Remaining Games: Although the Pacers have an easier schedule facing the Magic, 76ers and Hawks they aren’t in the best position due to tiebreaks versus their opponets
Tiebreak: Bucks and Heat won the season series and based on the divisional record the Bulls are also owners of the tiebreak. As noted above the only team the Pacers can win the tiebreak for is the Hawks and they’ll need to win that game to make that happen.
Miami Heat: (39-40)
Remaining Games: – Toughest scheduling remaining with two on road to Raptors/Wizards in a back-to-back followed by two home games to Cavaliers and Wizards.
Tiebreak: Heat own tiebreak versus Pacers and Bucks, and split series with Hawks but have a better divisional record than Atlanta. No to Bulls.
Require final Day: Arguably the two hottest East seeds may have used up a lot of energy getting into the race. The sixth ranked Bucks are on a 3-game losing streak. While the Heat have cooled off and have the toughest schedule remaining with all 4 games against top East seeds. Ultimately, expect these seeds not to be decided until the final day of the season.
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OKC Thunder fans no doubt will keep close track of all the remaining games with hopes of moving up the ladder. An ideal scenario would find OKC moving up a spot to face either the Jazz or Clippers. That said, the Thunder are constructed to excel especially defensively in the post season. Oh and let’s not forget there is that guy name Westbrook who can win a game all on his own.