How sale of Houston Rockets could affect OKC Thunder and rest of NBA

 Owner Leslie Alexander shocked the NBA with news he is selling the Houston Rockets, but what does this mean for the OKC Thunder and rest of the Association?

Houston Rockets owner Leslie Alexander dropped the biggest bomb of the offseason; announcing the team is for sale.  Frankly, this news is stunning, especially given the timing. To wit, the Rockets have been arguably the most aggressive team this summer.

First came the major sign and trade deal to bring Chris Paul to Houston. Free agent defensive specialist P.J. Tucker followed. Nene was re-signed and Tarik Black was added. Lost amid Monday’s big announcement was Luc Mbah a Moute who just signed to a 1-year, $2.1 million deal. Furthermore, the most recent narrative has Houston aggressively pursuing a trade (potentially requiring 4 teams) to add Carmelo Anthony.

Particularly baffling is Houston just inked James Harden to a super max $228 million contract.  The historic deal makes Harden the leagues highest paid player.

Given the abruptness of the announcement, Rockets President Tad Brown faced copious questions. Brown confirmed 73 year old Alexander’s health is fine and his decision was based on pursuing other passions. Still, after 24 seasons it’s hard to comprehend why Alexander would sell.

Why get intricately involved in Mike D’Antoni’s hire, work so closely with GM Daryl Morey or make sure these aggressive moves were made? Suffice to say, prior to Monday it was more logical to assume Alexander wanted another championship, rather than to sell the team.

Pace setters:

This offseason has been on warp speed.as one of the most active in recent memory. Punctuated by the unusual sheer number of upper echelon stars on the move. It started when Tom Thibodeau, and Sam Presti usurped free agency’s frenetic midnight moratorium madness. Since then, nary a 24 hour period has lapsed without another big fish changing ponds.

After 17 days everyone should be immune to these tremors. But, Alexander’s mic drop is by far the loudest to date. Alexander who bought the team 24 years ago, falls in the category of actively involved in management and strategy which is why people were caught off guard.

Oddly, the news was as much of a surprise to Rockets management, staff and players as it was for the rest of the NBA and fans.

Value of Rockets:

In terms of what Alexander can expect to get for the Rockets, recent estimates valued the squad at $1.65 billion. The last two franchises sold were the Atlanta Hawks for $850 million and the Clippers for $2 billion.  Considering the Forbes valuation, market size, history and fan base the Rockets are more likely to come closer to Ballmer’s Clippers purchase price.

What this means for OKC Thunder and rest of NBA:

In the West, the Thunder, Timberwolves and Rockets have all taken turns waging their big moves into Morey’s dubbed “arms race”.  Like lemmings leaping off cliffs, there was a mass exodus of East coast All-Stars to the West. Credit the uber team Golden State Warriors who some pundits estimate are positioned for a decade of trips to capture Larry O’Brien. Clearly, Western teams recognize the champs have set a high standard and to compete, appropriate adjustments must be made.

As far as how this impending Rockets sale may affect the Thunder and other foes there are several factors to consider. Simply stating Houston’s management team will function in a status quo scenario would be naive.

Let’s examine how the sale of the team has the potential to alter decisions moving forward.

Like it or not a change in ownership has an effect:

Steve Ballmer had an immediate positive effect on the Clippers, particularly given who his predecessor was. Yet, despite boasting a roster featuring All-Stars (Paul, Griffin and Jordan), a title winning coach in Rivers, perennial sixth man candidate Crawford plus 3-point specialist J.J. Redick the team only got past the first round once since Ballmer bought them.

In the East, the Hawks situation is far less appealing. When new ownership bought the Hawks they were at their apex. Atlanta was coming off their first 60-win season where they posted 19 consecutive wins, sent 4 or their 5 starters to the All-Star Game and reached the Eastern Conference Finals.

Since the sale, the squad has regressed yearly, suffering major roster upheaval and copious front office issues. Atlanta brought in Dwight Howard for one season before trading him. They failed to keep Tim Hardaway Jr. after working to substantially improve his output. But, the loss of their two stars was almost disrespectful. Both Al Horford and Paul Millsap walked in free agency without netting anything in return, except additional salary cap space. However, the manner in which management dealt specifically with Millsap showcased how poor the Hawks’ management PR skills were.

Highlighting how much the team has changed, only two players remain on the roster (Schroder, Bazemore) since the sale two seasons ago.

Clearly, ownership can have a massive impact on what direction a franchise takes. The above two options offer very different paths. Yet, neither netted massive improvements, specifically if success is measured by how deep a team’s postseason run is.

Not going into luxury tax could become an issue:

Sure, technically the term ‘business as usual’ will be utilized. Yet, how realistic is it for Tad Brown to task Daryl Morey with continuing to push for Carmelo Anthony? Shouldn’t selling the team take priority? That said, it’s feasible Morey could keep working toward this end.

Digging into the current salary situation, as per Sportac this morning the updated Rockets projected salary includes Mbah a  Moute and Black.

Sportac notes both the mid level and bi-annual exceptions are gone and the team is  already into the luxury tax.

Specifically, the Rockets are committed to $119,358,195 with cap holds. That’s well over the $99 million salary cap and also takes them into the luxury tax. It’s also just $6,066,576 from the tax apron.

Note: This figure includes 17 player salaries (assume 2 will be for the 2-way G-League contracts). Consider 41 percent of the salaries used to compile that figure are from seven players who are 2016 or 2017 rookies or first year players. It does not account for rookies like Isaiah Hartenstein.

It does include salaries for Harden, Paul, Anderson, Gordon, Tucker, Nene, Ariza, Capella, Black, Mbah a Moute and the following youngsters.

2016 Rookies: Chinanu Onuaku ($1,312,611), Zhou Qi ($815,615)

2017 Rookies: Cameron Oliver ($815,615)

1 year in NBA: Tim Quarterman ($1,312,611), Shawn Long ($1,312,611) , Isaiah Taylor ($1,312,611) and Jarrod Uthoff ($1,312,611)

Does adding Carmelo Anthony remain a priority?

If the assumption is the Rockets will continue their pursuit of Carmelo Anthony, surely they intend to shed a number of these contracts. However, is it realistic for Houston to be spending into the luxury tax while simultaneously trying to sell the team?

Conversely, if the brain trust decides selling a team not in the luxury tax would be more appealing to prospective buyers then how does that affect the current roster. Sure, the Rockets have plenty of depth but can they win with the above 7 players on the roster? Or do they become the high end version of last season’s Wizards, (read: strong starting unit with 2 or 3 solid bench players). In this scenario if more than one player gets injured in their 8 core members it could present major depth issues.

How this affects Chris Paul’s free agency decision in summer of 2018:

Since Chris Paul arrived via sign and trade there is no deal in place beyond this season. Having opted in CP3 will hit free agency next summer. Can the Rockets afford to not impress him by delivering whatever was promised to lure him to Houston?

From this scribes perspective it makes more sense to stay out of the luxury tax. That in itself has the potential to create problems long term.

Closing:

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The coming weeks and months will be extremely interesting to see precisely how the situation in Houston plays out.  All eyes in the NBA and particularly out West will be on the Rockets. How quickly a sale occurs could also play a factor. Bottom line the dynamics in Houston are sure to be a story line throughout the process.

To that end, every minor trial or tribulation the Rockets incur will face greater scrutiny and examination. Paul is used to the spotlight, but it’s doubtful he will be thrilled to jump from the frying pan into the fire.

For the OKC Thunder, obviously the best bet is to focus on what can be controlled which is themselves.  Owner Clay Bennett will continue to let the steady hand of Presti do his thing which is to run a top notch world class franchise. That, at the very least gives the Thunder a minor benefit and perhaps just made the northbound path up the ladder a tad bit easier.

Bottom line, in the congested talent filled West, an advantage — even minor, can easily shift to a major gain.