OKC Thunder - The hot tub time machine reversal

Amazingly one game changed the journey of the OKC Thunder through the first quarter of the season. But a deep dive offers proof a breakthrough isn’t just desirable it is inevitable.

It’s been said the NBA isn’t just a sport it’s also entertainment. So, on October 22 when the reformulated Timberwolves and OKC Thunder put on an explosive offensive show it felt like the opening act of a movie. Act II followed with yet another dramatic OKC game loss five days later.

In less than a week the Thunder had lost two games by five points to the same team. The effect, however, was pivotal to the direction both squads took through the first quarter of the season.

Since those two losses to the young Wolves, the OKC Thunder have won just six times and lost nine games. Worse, five of those wins came against lottery-bound squads or teams struggling with their own identity (Bucks).

The lone saving grace was a win versus the current champion Warriors. Following the dominant victory, it was assumed ‘that win’ was going to provide the catalyst which would kick start the turnaround. But, OKC failed to build upon the momentum, immediately losing three times in a row and twice embarrassingly so.

For Thunder fans the integration of the OK3 is frustrating. Each time OKC show glimpses of what they could become, the fanbase opines “it’s only a matter of time“. But, 20 games into the season those excuses are wearing thin, and hopefulness have switched to nervousness.

One game (or one non-call) changed the course of the Thunder season:

In retrospect that October 22 loss which was cemented due to a bad call resonates with far-reaching effects. Returning to my hot tub time machine premise, let’s pretend the official gets that call correct. Could the effect of winning that game have served to instill confidence for OKC moving forward? Would the OK3 have utilized what worked in that first match (ball/player movement) to garner success in other games instead of tweaking things which led to collapses? Would the Thunder have been more confident in clutch situations having already won the first close match? So much could have been different.

Although it might seem like a stretch, ask any player why they get in shooting slumps or a suddenly hot team why they beat far superior competition. The response will be the same every time – confidence.

Flashback to game 3 of the OKC Thunder season and a win turning to a loss when an illegal screen wasn’t called. Diving into the Hot Tub Time Machine let’s reflect on how that loss altered the season

At least half of the OKC Thunder’s losses occurred following large leads and collapses or in clutch time. Diving into the 15 games the Thunder have played since the second Minnesota loss provides fuel for this thesis. Notably, the two Wolves games and seven of the OKC Thunder losses could well have resulted in wins.

Seven games highlighted by collapses and clutch time losses:

Celtics: Thunder hold an 18 point half time lead, but give back 14 points in an uneven third quarter. At 4:52 of the fourth quarter, the Celtics take their first lead in the game and build a seven-point cushion. OKC fight back pulling within a point (1:33), but the confident Celtics are the team who show poise to close out the game ultimately winning 101-94.
Two nights later the Blazers are up 11 entering the final frame. OKC cut the score to two points with 1:57 remaining and again at 51 seconds but failed to close out the game losing 99-103.
After building a 15 point first quarter lead OKC give it all back to the Kings. The teams see-saw back and forth. Near the end of the third quarter, Sacramento takes a 12-point lead. With 16 seconds remaining OKC pull within three points, but once more showcase an inability to close in the clutch.
In Denver, the squads fight a back and forth battle entering the fourth quarter dead even. OKC take an early lead holding it until the 8:00 minute mark, but once again they collapse allowing the Nuggets to pull ahead. And, just like previous occasions, OKC pulls within 3 points in clutch time only to lose again.
OKC jump on the Spurs pulling ahead by as much as 23 points but enter the final frame with the teams tied. As is common to the Thunder they pull within one point in the crucial closing seconds prior to succumbing.
In New Orleans, the Thunder jumped on the Pelicans early and built a 19 point lead. Unlike other games, they withstood runs by the Pelicans. But, again at 2:12 of the third quarter, the Pelicans finally take the lead. The entire fourth quarter the Pelicans hold the lead at least by a point and once more OKC can’t close in the clutch.
Yet again versus Detroit, the Thunder build a double-digit lead and lose to the Pistons in the clutch on a missed final shot.

I’m not including the Mavericks or Magic contests because at no time did it seem as if OKC were going to win those matches.

So let’s expand upon my hot tub time machine theory.

The refs call the Towns foul and OKC win the October 22, game versus Wolves
Game 5 in Minnesota on October 27 also ends up a win because teams follow their identity and habits. Especially notable for the Wolves, last season was their inability to close in the clutch. Had the Towns illegal screen on George been called it changes everything because OKC enters feeling confident. Conversely, the Wolves are the team that gets tight resulting in OKC emulating Game 3 to win in clutch time.
Moving to the seven games outlined above, again let’s assume winning Game 3 versus the Wolves instilled confidence. In this scenario, OKC also has cleared the hurdle of winning in the clutch time and on the road out West. So, via this confidence, it’s fair to assume they don’t tighten up and win four of the seven games outlined above.

This adds up to a further six wins or a 14 -6 record and translates into third place in the conference.

But seriously…

Preseason, pundits predictions all pointed to a home-court seed. Most placed them third (hmmm – check out that number above again!).

Before you toss off my hot tub thesis let’s get serious for a moment and review some stats and facts.

Examining the best defenses in the NBA the top ten feature eight currently seeded squads. Only the Thunder and Lakers miss the cut. And, in fairness OKC rank in the top three.

But, the true sign is the top ten teams in net point differential. In this category, every team except the OKC Thunder are current playoff seeds. The interesting part of this equation was the two poor games in Dallas and Orlando significantly dropped the Thunder’s net ranking. Entering last week the Thunder held positive 5.4 net differential ranking them fifth-best in the NBA (and still would).

What exactly do those stats tell us?

The two teams ahead of the OKC Thunder defensively currently sit second (Warriors) and fifth (Blazers) in the West. Of the teams who sat ahead in net differential when the Thunder had a +5.4 net differential were the Warriors again, Rockets (1st in West), Celtics (1st in East), and Raptors (tied for 3rd in East).

After inarguably the two worst losses of the season OKC slide to ninth, but remain top ten with their plus 2.4 differential. The same above teams remain in play. The other four are the Spurs (3rd WC), Pistons (2nd EC), Jazz (8th EC), and Blazers (5th WC). The Cavaliers (tied 3rd in EC) have the same net rating as OKC.

Focus on any criticism thrown out — the team is awkward, they’re a work in progress, can’t hold big leads, are lacking chemistry, run too much iso-ball, etc, etc. The fact remains at their worst the OKC Thunder prior to the last two losses ranked as a top-three defense and fifth on net ranking.

It’s conceivable the OKC Thunder will get worse offensively. Ultimately there is no place for them to go but up. If you take anything away from this period of time it’s that the tougher aspects of the system are working. The offense will come – Westbrook simply won’t allow the team to keep losing. Nor will he be painted with a dirty brush pigeonholing him as the one superstar other stars can’t play with. That’s about as likely to happen as Westbrook hugging and joking with Kevin Durant prior to games at Oracle.

Moving on to Act III:

More from Thunderous Intentions

Cutting to present with the Minnesota Timberwolves in town, it sure feels like this game has hot tub time machine potential. OKC is reeling from a 3-game losing streak which includes losses to two teams with a cumulative14-30 record. But, imagine if the Thunder win and do so in dramatic fashion (read: win in the clutch). Could that result in producing a desired restart for the team?

After all, it was game three of the season which seemed to start the row of dominoes falling. So, poetic justice would be for OKC to beat the Wolves in dramatic fashion. The ideal Hollywood moment would be for them to do it on the last shot of the game. Then with that confidence, push the reset button and turn things around.

While my hot tub time reset might be assumed as a joke, in all seriousness what the OKC Thunder need is a moment which they can build upon. Confidence is an intangible, but its value is as important as tangible assets. There is a certain karmic poetry to have the benefactors of the fateful game which sparked all the ensuing Thunder issues in town. What better opponent to flip the script with?

At least my Act III in the Hollywood script reads that way!

Home/Thunder News

OKC Thunder – The hot tub time machine reversal

By Tamberlyn Richardson | Dec 1, 2017