NBA Draft: Marvin Bagley III has talent and potential to be top pick
Skills:
Some schools naturally have a reputation for producing solid prospects. Others while successful are so talent laden questions naturally arise. Was the prospect held back based on not being afforded the opportunity to do more. Or conversely were limitations hidden.
In the case of Bagley it might be a little bit of both. First of all, Duke tends to nurture their prospects, increasing their fundamental skills. With Bagley his natural gifts leap off the page. The big man can score without needing plays run for him and has demonstrated the ability to hit from distance (albeit in a small sample). The one concern about the perimeter prowess (shot 39.7% on 23 of 58 attempts) is his free throw shooting is fairly low (62.7%) which tends to be a better indicator for shooting ability.
Due to his high motor and athleticism he is in constant motion. These gifts translate into above average rebounding skills, quick responses to defending either the perimeter, lateral movement or blocking shots. How this will translate playing versus speed and size is unknown.
Yet, perhaps Bagley’s greatest attribute is marrying these natural gifts with commitment. Possessing a no quit attitude has served the big man well and will be welcomed by the team who lands him.
The trick will be teaching Bagley to utilize both his skillset and energy with a view to harnessing focus.
Weaknesses:
Despite having the right defensive attitude in terms of his desire, his body will be an issue especially initially. In particular when he reaches the NBA facing players with larger bodies and greater strength is going to be an issue. This doesn’t mean he won’t eventually be able to handle players of this ilk.
Every pundit will cite Bagley’s shooting stroke whether it’s in terms of being unreliable, his mechanics or ability to stretch the floor. This might not be an issue depending on what position he plays. If Bagley takes the role of center spreading the floor is less of an issue. However, if he plays power forward then his shot becomes a greater factor.
Like most young lottery prospects Bagley has dominated at every level he’s played at. Some suggest his abilities haven’t been tested. The concern however may be how much he’s relied on his physical prowess over his fundamental skills. The take on this borders between those who believe he’ll be much better given more leeway and those who feel the absence of fundamentals will be exposed in the pros.