Threats to the OKC Thunder: A guide to Paul George’s offseason

Oklahoma City Thunder

Not gonna lie, I’m scared. We’ve all been hurt before and, although the hurt wouldn’t hurt quite as bad this time as when KD left, it would still be pretty bad. Paul George would be the second All-Star free agent in three years to decide to play elsewhere, and it would do nothing to assuage the state’s little brother mentality.

Hopefully luckily, Paul George has given every indication this off-season that he’s interested in staying in the Sooner State. There’s his overly-documented affinity for Oklahoma’s lakes. There’s his comments throughout the season and at his postseason exit interview. Also, there’s the fact that, per Royce Young on the OKC Dream Team podcast, Thunder doctors were not only involved in the decision of PG’s off-season surgery, but were literally in the room for the performance of that surgery.

Oh, also he wore Thunder sandals after his surgery. And, most recently, this:

The players and sense

The beauty of this scenario is that we already know how Paul George and Russell Westbrook fit together. Let’s make one thing very clear: Russell Westbrook likes pizza.

Russ got off to a slow start this season, probably because he had a knee procedure right before the start of the year. Once he fully healed, though, and before Andre Roberson‘s knee exploded, the Thunder had found a groove.

They’d won 17 of 22, Paul George was thriving as a secondary, free safety of a defender and was on track to make the All-Defense team (an honor he barely missed), and Andre Roberson was on track to win Defensive Player of the Year. Everything was coming together.

Unfortunately, knees explode sometimes, and the season was forever changed. The defense fell apart, Paul George expended too much energy on that end, as well as experiencing “forearm tightness” caused by elbow bursitis, which was corrected surgically after the season, and his shooting statistics suffered.

• Paul George’s 3-point percentage prior to Andre Roberson’s injury: 42 percent
• Paul George’s 3-point percentage after Andre Roberson’s injury: 37.3 percent

Reportedly, Paul George considers Andre Roberson’s injury to be a major factor in how the season turned out. That report is from the same person who assured us that KD would sign a five-year deal just before he left, however, so it should be treated with caution.

The dollars and cents

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The Thunder’s cap situation is dire. Perhaps the most depressing part of the whole situation is that, even if Paul George walks away, the Thunder will still be over the luxury tax thanks to Russ and Carmelo Anthony. If Paul George stays, though, that’s when the cap situation really gets overwhelming.

Based on admittedly rough projections, if Paul George was to sign a five-year extension, the next opportunity for OKC to get under even the luxury tax line would be in the 2020-21 season, when Russ is making $41 million , PG is making $35 million, and Adams is making $27.5 million.

Look, if you have a chance to sign a player of Paul George’s caliber to a long-term deal, you don’t pass it up. The history of the NBA is littered with the bodies of teams who chose finance over talent. If you bend the truth even a little, you can make the Thunder one of those teams.

That said, If the Thunder are able to re-sign Paul George, they’ll be in a tough situation financially. Let’s hope that, for once, OKC is on the right side of a cap spike, and the gambling money comes rushing in to help us out.

The Thunder are past due for a CBA break, and they’re desperate to return to the summit. Paul George fits perfectly. Hopefully he feels the same way about the Thunder.