NBA Free Agency: Mario Hezonja could be a future OKC Thunder reclamation project

After a miserable first three years in Orlando, Mario Hezonja is now free to move on. He enters NBA Free Agency as buy low on a potential low-risk/high-reward project for OKC.

During his tenure as the OKC Thunder General Manager, Sam Presti has shown trends in the type of players he likes to go after either in trades or NBA free agency. A more recent trend has been acquiring former high draft picks that didn’t pan out with the team who drafted them. Examples of this include Hasheem Thabeet, Dion Waiters, Enes Kanter, and most recently, Victor Oladipo. Presti has banked on these still young players simply needing a change of scene and thriving in a stronger development program.

With that in mind, former European sensation Mario Hezonja fits this trend.

The fifth overall pick in the 2015 draft, Hezonja, like many recent high lottery picks, struggled to develop in Orlando. Now under new management, the Magic decided to move on and declined Hezonja’s fourth year option, making him an unrestricted free agent.

Still just 23, Hezonja is nowhere near close to being a finished product. His next destination will be critical. The Croatian will have to prove he was a victim of poor coaching/management in Orlando and not a complete bust. A player touted highly as Hezonja was coming into the draft will certainly get a second chance. But should Hezonja’s next journey be as underwhelming as his Orlando stint, he may not get a third.

Height: 6’8
Position: Forward
Age: 23
Years of NBA Experience: Three
Type of Free Agency: Unrestricted
Hometown: Dubrovnik, Croatia
Salary from 2018 Season: $4,078,320
Last season’s stats: 9.6 PPG, 3.7 RPG. 1.4 APG, 51.5 EFG%, 13.7 PER
Career stats: 6.9 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 1.3 APG, 49.2 EFG%, 10.7 PER

Skillset

Strengths

Hezonja’s biggest strength going forward is his theoretical upside. In other words, he has shown enough flashes for teams to be intrigued by him. In the midst of an injury-plagued season, the Magic were left with little choice but to give Hezonja a shot. This February, he had the best month of his career, averaging 15.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 2.2 steals per game. His best game of the season came in a December loss to the Detroit Pistons. He erupted for 28 points on 8-12 shooting from three-point range, while also tallying six rebounds and three steals.

A few observations for the game. First, he is by no means gun shy. If he feels he is open and there isn’t a better option, the ball is going up. He can come off screens, hit fadeaways, and has deep range. On a negative note, his follow through is inconsistent at times, which can explain why he has been a streaky shooter throughout his career.

Second, he can cut. Around the :40 mark, he seeks Nikola Vucevic, who for some reason, is being triple teamed, and jolts to the bucket from the top of the key and completes the tough layup with a nice finish.

Third, he is a willing passer. Starting around the 2:20 mark, the Magic go on a fast-break. Hezonja ends up with the ball on the right wing. He could have taken a decent looking 3-pointer, especially with his hot-hand. Instead, he swings the ball over to the left wing to a wide-open Elfrid Payton for a better look resulting in a trey.

As the season progressed, it became more obvious Hezonja is a small-ball power forward as opposed to a small forward. This way, he will be able to create mismatches and blow by the bigger, slower more traditional power forwards that guard him. Whatever team that drafts him next will need to realize this and maximize his skills.

Weaknesses

Throughout his career, Hezonja has been incredibly inefficient on offense. Of the 353 qualified players, he ranked 201st with a .544 true shooting percentage. For a player that fancies himself a go-to offensive player, that’s not good enough to warrant the shots he has taken.

More importantly, Hezonja has not been up to par as an NBA defender. Frank Vogel, his coach for the last two seasons, has been critical of Hezonja’s work on the defensive end. It can help explain why he was buried on the Magic bench for most of the season. On a positive note, this Orlando Sentinel article by Josh Robbins highlights how Hezonja has made strides, specifically on defense.

Hezonja’s Potential Fits

Hezonja won’t be anywhere near the top of teams’ priority lists this offseason. That being said, with most teams likely to strike out and such little cap space available, teams are going to find a player like Hezonja appealing. He will most likely get a one year “prove it” type deal that nets him somewhere around 3-5 million dollars. With his upside and potential versatility, there could be somewhat on a bidding war for the once heralded prospect.

More from Thunderous Intentions

Getting paid now is important, but for a player like Hezonja who really needs to show what he is capable of, he really needs to focus on a place that’s a good fit. Orlando clearly had no clue how to use Hezonja and were too impatient to let him grow through his mistakes.

He needs a good coach and system in place that understands how to use him and get the most out of his abilities. The first place that comes to mind is Philadelphia. He could fit in next to Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons, as well as reunite with national teammate Dario Saric.

Could Hezonja fit in Oklahoma City? There is evidence that leans both ways. The Thunder have a great culture, and always reward players that put in the effort. If Carmelo Anthony is bought out and/or Jerami Grant leaves in unrestricted free-agency, there is certainly a role Hezonja could fill.

On the other hand, Billy Donovan is a defense-first coach. Unless you are Russell Westbrook or Carmelo Anthony, you have to play adequate defense to get consistent rotation minutes. My worry is if Hezonja comes to the Thunder, he’ll get the Alex Abrines treatment of being in and out of the rotation.

The Thunder are desperate in ways to improve their roster. If Hezonja wants to come to OKC (and can make the economics work), the Thunder should absolutely take a flyer on him.

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