The OKC Thunder underwent major alterations, but two roster additions and the growth of an internal candidate should help raise the teams win percentage.
The OKC Thunder seemingly had it all at the end of the 2011-12 NBA season, with two young superstars in the making in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, and a super sixth man with star potential in James Harden. But their run was not to last, as Harden was infamously traded to Houston after rejecting a non-maximum offer from the Thunder to avoid the luxury tax.
Six years later, the OKC Thunder ownership is brazenly going all-in in securing this intriguing roster financially, even with a whooping luxury tax bill looming in the horizon. With Westbrook’s prime slowly ticking away, no one can blame the OKC Thunder for putting full trust in the roster that showed flashes of being a championship contender at times, despite the disappointing first-round exit in the 2018 playoffs.
But, one can wonder, with financial flexibility severely constrained for the next few years, how good can it get with this team? The 2018-19 Thunder roster is set to have minimal but impactful changes, including the Carmelo Anthony trade, the Nerlens Noel signing, and the new draftees like Hamidou Diallo (terrific young defender).
The departure of Anthony will not only save the Thunder a heap of money, but it will free up the offense of inefficient shooting (16.2 points 15 shots, 40.4 field goal percent), remove a negative on-court contributor (negative -3.8 in Box Plus/Minus), and eliminate the need to integrate Anthony’s frustrating style of play within the offense.
Dennis Scroder opens Westbrook options:
The main acquisition from the trade, point guard Dennis Schroder, should prove to be incredibly important to the OKC Thunder as the first worthy backup to Westbrook in years. Schroder plays at a lighting-quick pace, gets to the rim at will, and has flashed great playmaking vision these past two seasons with the Hawks. He struggles spacing the floor, but has shown tremendous scoring potential, particularly inside the paint. Schroder’s at-rim finishing is a staple of his offensive game, with nearly 40 percent of his 2-P shots being within 3 feet of the rim.
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/26/2018.
His playmaking ability should be reason for excitement. Compared to Westbrook’s first 4 years in the league, Schroder’s assist, turnover, and usage percentage are not far off. If Westbrook can commit to ceding some control of the offense to Schroder, the OKC offense can open up by freeing two of the best scorers in the league in Westbrook and George to score off the ball. If their best player is committing to running screens, cutting, and moving around for catch-and-shoot opportunities, this Thunder team can legitimately reach a Top-5 offensive rating.
Schroder’s defense at this stage in his career is comparable to a fishing net trying to catch sand, but he has physical tools to thrive on the defensive end. Being in a winning defensive culture in OKC should pay dividends for his development.
Nerlens Noel offers front court versatility:
The Noel signing should prove to be one of the most overlooked and underrated signings of this free agency. Noel has pressing question marks surrounding him, particularly due to his underwhelming stint with the Dallas Mavericks mired with poor effort, off-court behavior, and inefficient play.
OKC are banking on a career resurgence from Noel, hoping he recaptures his old form from his time with the Sixers. During his first two years in the league, Noel averaged over 1.5 steals and blocks per game, all while being top 10 in Defensive Win Shares and Defensive BPM. His advanced statistics for his first two seasons were as follows:
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/26/2018.
If Noel recommits his tenacious defensive play to impact the Thunder’s team defense, the OKC Thunder may have found the best back-up center in the league for an already terrific player in Steven Adams.
Jerami Grant‘s new role:
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Jerami Grant’s 3-year deal was a necessary cap-friendly investment on a young forward, who is barely 24 years of age. Despite his rough start in the league (2nd round pick, poor draft combine performance), the league’s transition into predominantly pace-and-space offenses has allowed Grant to transform himself into the prototypical modern NBA stretch-four.
His three-point shooting still needs a lot of work (29 percent on 1.4 attempts) to be considered an outside threat, but his impact in every other area is undeniable. He consistently outplayed Carmelo Anthony due to his versatile defense and effectiveness off the ball, and effectively replaced Anthony in the main rotation during the playoffs.
New OKC Thunder roster depth:
As it stands, the presumed 2018-19 starting lineup for the Thunder will be:
- Point Guard: Russell Westbrook
- Shooting Guard: Andre Roberson
- Small Forward: Paul George
- Power Forward: Jerami Grant
- Center: Steven Adams.
On paper, there is a case to be made this starting five is one of the best in the league. It oozes with lock down defensive versatility and humongous offensive potential.
Sure, the Thunder roster severely lacks depth aside from the starting 5 and Nerlens Noel. That is, unless Raymond Felton and Patrick Patterson can recapture their old form. But, as Warriors Head Coach Steve Kerr recently stated, if your first four or five guys are elite, All-NBA caliber players, that can be enough in the end.
As long as Westbrook and George continue to improve their on-court chemistry, consistency (particularly George), and production, a championship is certainly within reach.