OKC Thunder coach Billy Donovan is finally getting his way

Stop threes

Billy Donovan is infamous for providing long-winded, politician-style non-answers regularly. I don’t know if it’s always an intentional dodge, or maybe there’s just way too much information to transfer to us in any manageable amount of time – these guys are really smart – but it’s a fact. He rarely actually answers questions.

However, reporters recently got him to answer one. Here it is via Royce Young of ESPN:

The short version (there’s always a short version), is that the Thunder have put a premium this season on limiting opponent’s 3-point attempts, while also trying to give them a high level of “contested-ness” (nice word, Billy), and also protect the rim.

That’s a tall task, but the stats bear out that this strategy is actually being employed. Below is a chart showing the Thunder’s opponent’s FG rate (the percentage of FGs attempted) from three groups: at the rim, mid-range, and 3-point, vs their average.

As you can see, opponent 3-point FG rate is trending downward, just as we’d hope. The rate at the rim is actually trending up, but OKC has allowed teams to shoot above their average rates at the rim in only five of17 games this season. Shots at the rim are being limited, and how. And shots from three are on the decline.

Which leads us to the next question: Are the Thunder also contesting shots well?

Contested-ness

It’s not really fair, nor is it accurate, to just compare what percentages the OKC Thunder are allowing as a raw number game over game. Some teams can shoot, and some teams can’t. So, instead, as we did above, we’ll have to compare the percentages for each team against their own individual averages.

What you would hope to see, much like in the above chart, are numbers in the negative percentages vs each team’s average. What you do see is below.

Yes, shots at the rim show an upward sloping line.

Shooting at the rim is way up, but I would put this fact to the Thunder preventing shots well, but knowing when they’re beaten – opponent FT rate has plummeted during the latest games of the season. And remember, attempts are way down, with only five opponents shooting more than their average.

Not only that, but just as opponent 3-point frequency is trending down, so is opponent 3-point percentage.

The Thunder have caused 12 of 17 opponents to shoot below their average on the season from three (which is good, the Thunder are 10-2 in those games, and 1-4 when the opponent shoots better than average).

The Thunder are limiting 3-point attempts, causing 3-point misses, and also limiting at the rim attempts. And all the while, opponents are shooting far more mid-range attempts than they usually do.

All in all, it looks like Billy’s strategy is being employed. But how do we know this isn’t just good defense?

For that, we’ll have to go back to the offense.