Optimism abounds for OKC Thunder in ESPN future power rankings

With the play-in tournament underway, the NBA will begin the playoffs on Saturday. Meanwhile, the OKC Thunder have completed exit interviews and begun their offseason process.

It’s unfamiliar territory for Thunder Nation given they’ve been one of those 16 postseason participants in 10 of the 13 seasons the franchise has existed.

The reality is this is the new norm for at least the near future but the plan is to restructure and rebuild primarily via the draft. And with 34 potential draft picks or swaps at Sam Presti’s disposal over the next seven seasons the belief is the team could be back in the mix sooner than later.

ESPN future power rankings predict rapid rise for OKC Thunder

However, the folks at ESPN believe all those draft picks are the key that will place the Thunder franchise back with the elite in the next three years. In the 12th annual future power rankings OKC performed better than most would expect.

Experts Kevin Pelton and Bobby Marks used five specific categories with an assigned percentage within the 100:

• Players – current players on roster and potential for the future  (53.8 percent)
• Management – quality and stability of front office, ownership, and coaching (15.4 percent)
• Money – projected salary cap situation (15.4 percent)
• Market – size as well as reputation and the appeal to free agents/acquisitions (7.7 percent)
• Draft -future draft picks; draft positioning (7.7)

Understandably the talent on the team receives more than half of the 100 points. Front office management and salary or available funds garnered the second-highest percentage. Market and draft place third with the lowest percentage.

Although the draft percentage might seem low, it’s understandable given the numerous uncertainties of the draft. For example, picks aren’t cemented until season end, not every draft has the same depth of talent, and prospects don’t always live up to their perceived potential.

The OKC Thunder were ranked as follows:

• Existing players – 26th  with a 25 rating (Nets/Bucks rank 1st with a 95 rating)
• Management – tied Raptors in 8th with a 70 rating (Jazz/76ers rank 1st with a 82.5 rating)
• Money – tied Knicks/Spurs in 1st with a 97.5 rating
• Market – tie Kings in 27th with a 27.5 rating (NY and LA rank first with a 92.6 rating — shocker)
• Draft – 1st with a 100 rating – notably the only 100 given in all five categories and the next closest team is the Rockets with an 87.5 rating.

To see how every team ranked by category click here.

As for the overall power rankings that incorporated these five categories the Thunder receive a score of 53.1 which places them 19th. That might seem low but considering they only drop five spots after a year of tanking it speaks to how strong their future potential is deemed. For example teams with All-Star talents like the Pacers, Pelicans and Blazers fell underneath them.

And Pelton didn’t hold back on how impactful Presti’s draft closet is, stating their draft rating of 100 was actually lower than the 115 they statistically scored.

"At the risk of implying Oklahoma City has a lot of draft picks coming, an attempt to rate teams on our 0-100 scale statistically scored them a 115 in this category. The Thunder could land two top-five picks this summer if their own selection moves up and they’re able to swap an incoming pick for the Houston Rockets’ first-rounder, which is top-four protected.Already there’s enough young talent in Oklahoma City, led by guards Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luguentz Dort, that the Thunder were competitive before Gilgeous-Alexander and veteran Al Horford came out of the lineup. So while Oklahoma City will likely try to build slowly through the lottery, the Thunder should be on the rise by the end of the three-year period. — Pelton"

Pelton’s assessment is spot on with regard to the existing talent and draft. Their money rank and management rank are also appropriate. However, the market ranking seems far too low. Granted, the Thunder are a small market but it’s not like the stars have exited en masse at first opportunity citing the size of the market or unhappiness at being in Oklahoma City.

Sure Paul George was the exception but if we are to believe his reasoning for wanting out, it had more to do with Kawhi Leonard asking him to join forces in LA which is also PG’s hometown. And, it’s not like George didn’t pull the same stunt with Indiana.

More from Thunderous Intentions

• Stealing one player from every Southwest Division team for the OKC Thunder
• Should the OKC Thunder chase after a disgruntled hometown hero?
• 3 OKC Thunder players who can step up in Aleksej Pokusevski’s absence
• Aleksej Pokusevski sidelined approximately 6 weeks with ankle injury
• Damian Lillard does not fit with the OKC Thunder

Russell Westbrook didn’t bolt at first opportunity nor did Kevin Durant in fact. Virtually every star-level player who has donned an OKC Thunder shirt has spoken extremely positively about living in OKC and how much they love the fan base and living in OKC.

Mike Muscala teared up during his exit interview while discussing how great the experience has been in OKC and his hope to return.

That should count for more than a 27th rank. Especially when there are clubs that don’t have that type of reputation. I could be being too sensitive but the players who cite living in the big markets don’t typically do it for the same reasons as they did in years past.

Prior to social media, and players building their own brands LA and New York were deemed the only markets big enough to pad player’s pockets with endorsements. Again, I’ll point to Westbrook who consistently ranked high on Forbes’ list of top earners while he was playing for OKC and well ahead of numerous other stars who lived in larger markets.

That said, Pelton and Marks have a great grasp of the 30 teams and the big takeaway should be the optimism they have in how quickly OKC will return to prominence. To put in perspective just how strong this ranking is it’s notable the Rockets and Magic who were second and third in the draft portion placed 27th and 28th on the list.

Stay tuned for more information on the upcoming draft as the Thunder will learn next week if they’ll have the fourth or fifth-best odds entering the NBA Draft Lottery.