OKC Thunder: Predicting Gilgeous-Alexander’s stats for 2021-22 season

Gilgeous-Alexander 2021-22 stat prediction: Scoring

In the 2020/21 season, Shai shot 16.1 field goals per game.  Due to the minute increase, I would expect this number to slightly rise even though SGA will not need to be as ball-dominant as last season thanks to 2021 rookies Josh Giddey and Tre Mann plus the rapidly improving young core from last season.

According to NBA stats, Shai’s most efficient shot last season was the catch-and-shoot 3-pointer from which he shot 43.2 percent (64.9 eFG percent) on 1.1 attempts per game. While this number is pretty high, it’s far from unsustainable as Shai shot 40 percent (1.3 attempts) on catch-and-shoot 3-pointers in 2019/20. Furthermore, What gives me more confidence regarding his shooting is his improved form and release.

I expect Shai to have a career-high in catch and shoot 3-pointers  made and attempted per game next season as he can play off the likes of Josh Giddey, Tre Mann, and an improving ball-handling crew from last season in certain sets.

I’m expecting a minor drop in his 3-point percentage as compared to last season due to some unsustainably great tough shot-making in 2020/21. Shai shot over 62 percent from deep in both tight and very tight coverage according to NBA stats. Therefore, I predict SGA’s volume and proportion of triples relative to other shots to be similar but with more catch and shoots options and fewer pull-ups.

Stat prediction for 3-point percentage prediction: 40 percent

From the mid-range, SGAi had an extremely smart shot selection, taking almost 80 percent (79.8) of his two-point shots from within 10 feet according to basketball reference. We can attribute his career-best shooting efficiency in 2020/21 to this success. Despite an extremely huge offensive load and being in one of the worst offensive and spacing situations in the league, he was magnificent.

According to basketball reference, Shai took a career-high 33.3 percent of his field goal from zero to three feet while shooting 63.3 percent. With a better spacing situation and more scoring threats, I expect the floor to be opened up even more for Shai’s excellent driving and slashing and as a result, I’m expecting slight increases in both of these numbers (attempts and efficiency).

Shai shot 53 percent from three to ten feet, passing his previous career-high by 11 percent. Over a larger sample size, this level of efficiency could be difficult to maintain. On the other hand, the attempts the Canadian will take from between ten feet and the 3 point line is a smaller proportion and he’s likely to be more efficient this season (he posted a career-low on these shot attempts last season).

Overall, I expect Shai’s field goal percentage to dip by a very small margin relative to last season although a better situation should mean that he’s taking more efficient shots comparatively.

Field Goal Percentage Prediction: 49 Percent

Shai’s free-throw efficiency in his NBA career has been close to identical as he shot 80 percent from the line in his rookie year, 80.7 percent in 2019/20, and 80.8 percent in 2020/21. With more emphasis on free-throw shooting in the offseason, I think Shai can slightly improve his percentage in this regard

Free Throw Percentage Prediction: 82 Percent

I expect Shai’s free throw attempts per game to remain similar or slightly rise as he won’t be handling the ball as much but will have more space to operate in thanks to a better spacing situation relative to last season while also playing more minutes.

True Shooting Percentage Prediction: 62 Percent

With more minutes per game as compared to 2020/21 and only a very small dip in his efficiency (true shooting percentage), I expect SGA to post a new career-high in points per game.

Points Per Game Prediction: 24.0 PPG