Things heat up as OKC Thunder and cohorts set their sights on play-in berth

With the OKC Thunder headed to Charlotte for their final road game of 2022, the team’s season objectives have taken on a new direction.

Although we can debate whether the Thunder should be actively tanking what isn’t on the table for discussion is just how exciting this young OKC Thunder club is. Nor is there any question on just how impressive cornerstone Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been as he continues to deliver setting career bests and bolstering his breakthrough season.

Aside: don’t forget to make your daily All-Star vote for SGA to start in the game.

Things heat up as OKC Thunder and cohorts set their sights on play-in berth

If there is a common denominator this season or one word that could be cited as the common thread it’s PARITY.

Both conferences are tightly packed although the top tier in the East has a bit of separation with the top four seeds holding a four to seven game padding. Yet, even that minuscule distance doesn’t feel safe for any team other than the Celtics. To wit, the Bucks who were first in the East have lost four in a row dropping to third in a little over a week.

The West is different, with five games separating the top teams from the 10th team and five games separating the fourth-seeded Clippers from the 12th-seeded OKC Thunder.

If OKC wins tonight they’ll be in a virtual tie with the 11th-seeded Wolves or if they lose fall a full game back. The fact OKC and Minny are sitting in this position considering where they were expected to be based on preseason predictions is wild.

It’s yet another example of why Sam Presti is considered one of the smartest front-office executives in the NBA.  In fact, regardless of what happens this season, Presti has set up the OKC Thunder for future success while Tim Connelly’s big offseason move may have derailed the Wolves’ future.

While it seems like the OKC Thunder have committed to competing for the play-in seed that direction could change. Perhaps privately, the franchise may have already made the decision, however, the reality is the next 20 games will cement their direction.

That’s how many games they have until the February 9th trade deadline and when numerous teams will either commit to adding depth or elect to pull a second-half Trail Blazers move (Portland won just two of their last 23 games to net the eighth seed).

Breaking down the pre trade deadline  schedule of the parity pack

TI dove into the teams seeded fifth through 13th with a view to each of their schedules leading up to the deadline. The following highlights their road versus home matches, opponent breakdown (winning team vs. tanking clubs), and back-to-back sets to ascertain which clubs Thunder Nation should keenly observe leading up to the deadline.

I included the Suns given the news out of Phoenix that Devin Booker will miss the next four weeks with a groin strain and Cameron Johnson still being out

Suns (5th):  three games back of first,  four games up on the Thunder.

They’ll play 20 games prior to the deadline with 11 on the road and 13 against teams with .500 or better records. They have three sets of back-to-backs with two of those on the road.

Kings (6th): 3.5 games back of first, 3.5 games up on the Thunder.

They’ll play 21 games before the deadline with 10 at home and 11 on the road, including a seven-game road trip that finishes the day before the trade deadline.

Sacramento has a very easy strength of schedule in this period with only seven of their 21 games against teams with records .500 or better. They also have three back-to-back sets featuring a road, home, and split set.

Mavericks (7th): 3.5 games back of first, 3.5 games up on the Thunder.

Dallas will play 21 games prior to the trade deadline with 12 of those matches on the road and 13 versus teams with .500 or better records. They have two back-to-back sets with the first being a home/road set that features the OKC Thunder on the back end and the second a baseball road set in Portland.

Blazers (8th): four games back of first, three games up on the Thunder.

Portland also has 21 matches before the deadline but only eight on the road and 11 versus teams with .500 or better records. They’ll play three back-to-back base sets including the one noted above and will host a second set plus play a road set.

Jazz (9th):  4.5 games back of first, 2.5 games up on the Thunder.

Utah has only 19 games before the trade deadline and it’s a home-heavy schedule with just six road contests and 11 versus teams with .500 or better records. The Jazz has three back-to-back sets in this segment with all three occurring in their next nine dates and featuring one of each (home/road/split) set in the mix.

Warriors (10th): five games back of first, two games up on the Thunder.

Golden State has 19 matches before the deadline with a 10 to 9 home/road split. Nine of their opponents have a .500 or better record and they’ll play two back-to-back sets in succession all on the road and the latter of those is in Boston and Cleveland (ouch).

Wolves (11th): 6.5  games back of first, 0.5 games up on the Thunder.

Minnesota has by far the most matches before the deadline with 23 on tap although only eight of those are on the road. While they’ll get the benefit of being home they also have the disadvantage of facing 16 opponents with .500 or better records and have FIVE back-to-back sets in this period two home sets, two split sets, and one road set.

Lakers (13th): seven games back of first, and trail the Thunder by 1.5 games.

LA will play 21 games before the deadline with 10 road matches, and 15 opponents with .500 or better records including a five-game road trip all versus winning teams. The Lakers have four back-to-back sets in this period (2 home, 1 road, and 1 split).

The OKC Thunder has 20 games on the itinerary before the trade deadline with 11 on the road. They play three back-to-back sets with two on the road and one split and 12 of their opponents have .500 or better records.

Scoreboard Watch:

Of the nine squads, the Jazz and Kings have the easiest slate of games before the trade deadline while the Wolves have the most difficult given their opponent list and the five back-to-back sets.

While Minny is an obvious team to pay attention to the other clubs to keep an eye on are the trio of the Kings, Blazers, and Jazz.  I’m still not convinced Danny Ainge traded away most of his core with the intention of being a middling team so he could be the exec who’ll make a move before the deadline.

Sacramento and Portland are both covetous of playoff berths but in the Kings’ case how Domantas Sabonis navigates this injury will be telling. He’ll be playing through constant pain and unfortunately now that his opponents know about the injury they’ll be constantly banging his hand.

His ability to deal with the pain (or end up getting frozen before every game) could determine if they finally break the playoff drought.

As for the Blazers, I’m not convinced they’re as strong as they looked at season start and wonder if their ownership will swerve and convince Dame that one more season of tanking with the potential of landing another star should take precedence.

Factor in the Bulls own Portland’s first-round pick BUT it’s lottery protected. Blazers management will have to weigh the odds. They sit eighth at the moment and could move up or down. The big question is whether it’s worth playing in the postseason as the seventh or eighth seed (especially if they get swept) only to watch the Bulls nab a nice prospect versus pulling the Tank 2.0 second half in a deep draft and keeping that pick for themselves.

The OKC Thunder have less to lose by gunning for it because they still have a top draft asset sitting on their bench and are proving how competitive they are this season.

Regardless, Sam Presti has plenty of options and can ride out these next 20 games before making a final decision.