The outcome of the Oklahoma City Thunder's matchup against the Utah Jazz on Sunday night was relatively predictable. The Thunder are perhaps the hottest team in the league heading into the end of the regular season, while the Jazz's tanking methods since the trade deadline have been well-documented across the league.
Like many late-season matches across the NBA, this one was essentially over before it started. The Thunder jumped out to an early lead and never relented, ultimately prevailing by a score of 146-11. It marks Oklahoma City's fourth-straight victory and their 15th win since March 1.
While the victory was important in maintaining hold of the one seed, virtually everything else in the league has already been decided, including the awards race.
Although Chet Holmgren had one of his most dominant defensive performances in a while, posting four impressive blocks against a rim-running Utah team, he still remains far away from true contention for Defensive Player of the Year. As deserving as he might be of consideration, this latest performance comes with a painful realization.
As long as Victor Wembanyama is healthy, Holmgren has virtually no shot at the award.
Defensive Player of the Year will be Victor Wembanyama's to lose as long as he's playing
It's important that we don't downplay the advancements Holmgren has made as a rim protector this season. His athleticism and timing have taken major leaps in his third full NBA season. He's averaging just 1.8 blocks per game, but opponents are shooting just 42.7% from the field with Holmgren as the primary defender.
For a brief stint, when it appeared Wembanyama would not meet the 65-game threshold, Holmgren was the favorite for the award. But Wembanyama now sits at 62 games played with four matchups left to go in the Spurs' season. He's outpacing Holmgren in virtually every defensive category.
He's averaging a league-leading 3.1 blocks per game. Opponents are shooting just 41.9% from the field with him as the primary defender. He leads the league in estimated defensive plus-minus among centers and forwards, per Dunks & Threes, with an incredible mark of 3.8. Holmgren is third in that category with a mark of 3.2.
In truth, Holmgren truly has no case to surpass Wembanyama for Defensive Player of the Year. But his performance on Sunday night certainly made him look like a favorite.
The unfortunate reality is that Wembanyama is virtually unsurpassable as a defender. The combination of his height, agility, and overall defensive impact within San Antonio's scheme makes certain of that.
As long as Holmgren plays, the award will run through Wembanyama, even if he plays every game like he did against Utah.