The Houston Rockets received devastating news this week when two-way star point guard Fred VanVleet tore his ACL. The shockwaves of the injury will radiate out to most of the league -- and one in particular will come right up the Oklahoma City Thunder's doorstep when the 2026 NBA Draft rolls around.
When any NBA player suffers a significant injury, it's a sad moment for the entire league. When that player is Fred VanVleet, a beloved player by all who come into contact with him and one of the most intelligent and personable players in the NBA, it's all the more depressing.
The questions facing the Houston Rockets just multiplied like rabbits. Who will start at point guard? Will Houston keep its current roster or make a trade? Have they dropped out of the ranks of contenders, opening room for another team to step up? Will Kevin Durant now refrain from signing a contract extension to see how the season plays out? Are Amen Thompson and Reed Sheppard ready to step up?
A worse Rockets team probably makes the Thunder's path easier in the Western Conference to repeat as champions. Houston's size and length on defense, combined with the addition of Kevin Durant, made them a formidable challenger; without VanVleet, they have a glaring weakness at the point and in terms of shooting. Most likely, they will not be presenting a realistic threat to Oklahoma City come May.
Houston's pain will help the Thunder
That is not the only shockwave heading the Thunder's way, however. While it's easy to think of the treasure chest of draft picks that Sam Presti has amassed as some giant pile of jewels, each additional pick is actually coming from one team or another. One such pick next year is coming from the Rockets.
More specifically, the Rockets owe a first-round pick to either the Thunder or the Washington Wizards. Oklahoma City will receive the two most favorable of a trio of picks belonging to Houston, OKC and the LA Clippers. If the Thunder have the best record in the league once again, that will mean sending the 30th pick to Washington and keeping picks from the Rockets and Clippers.
Until this week, it was a reasonable question of whether the Rockets were deep enough to keep pace with the Thunder in the Western Conference. The Thunder may have swapped out their own No. 30 pick, but for just the 28th or 29th pick in the draft. Now the floor for Houston is much lower, which means the upside for the Thunder's own pick is much higher.
If the Rockets completely fall apart and miss the playoffs -- unlikely given the rest of the talent on the roster, but perhaps now in play -- the pick that they owe to Oklahoma City is protected for selections 1-4. Almost certainly, the pick will convey to the Thunder, and now could fall into the 15-20 range and is most likely projected for the low 20s.
That singular asset, the Rockets' 2026 first-round pick, is now a more valuable asset. The Thunder can use it to draft a more valuable prospect next June, they can trade down and add value, or they can trade it now or during the season at a higher cost. No one is celebrating the injury, but the reality is that the Thunder's position for this year and beyond improved when the Rockets got worse.
Houston could surprise and be at the top of the Western Conference once again; they were last season before adding Kevin Durant. If their young guards are not ready to step up, however, it could mean slipping down the standings. If that happens, the Thunder will now get a much more valuable draft pick next year.
The rich get richer.