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ESPN's latest mock draft issues a first-round gamble Thunder can't afford to take

The Thunder should likely move off of their pick at 17th overall. But if they make the selection, it can't be for a guard without true perimeter-shooting chops.
May 24, 2026; San Antonio, Texas, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault reacts in the fourth quarter against the San Antonio Spurs during game four of the western conference finals for the 2026 NBA playoffs at Frost Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images
May 24, 2026; San Antonio, Texas, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault reacts in the fourth quarter against the San Antonio Spurs during game four of the western conference finals for the 2026 NBA playoffs at Frost Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images | Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images

The Oklahoma City Thunder, in all likelihood, will need to move off one of their two first-round selections in the 2026 NBA Draft.

Granted, there's a number of routes they could take this offseason. With team options on Isaiah Hartenstein, Luguentz Dort, and Kenrich Williams and the futures of both Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins in the air, they have more flexibility than it might seem at first glance. If they want to package both picks to trade up into the top-10, that could be a smart move. If they want to trade one of those two selections for future draft capital, that could also be savvy.

If they want to let multiple players from the current roster depart and use both picks to add an influx of young talent, though, they need to do so with precision.

In ESPN's latest mock draft, the Thunder select Alabama guard Labaron Philon Jr. at 17th overall. While Philon is a great player with high upside as a ball-handler, Oklahoma City likely needs to target areas other than the backcourt in this Draft. A swing on Philon at 17 simply would not justify their decision to hang on to the pick.

Labaron Philon Jr. is a great option in the 2026 NBA Draft, just not for the Thunder

In case it's not yet clear, this is in no way meant to disparage Philon as a prospect. While his draft range has likely settled outside of the lottery, the improvements he showed as a sophomore in the SEC warrant some major buzz surrounding him entering the Draft. Across 33 games at Alabama last season, the 6'2 guard averaged 22 points, 3.5 rebounds, and five assists while shooting 39.9% from beyond the arc. He's a polished ball-handler, and he showed flashes as a three-level scorer during his highly-productive sophomore campaign.

Still, though, selecting Philon at 17 wouldn't be a smart move for the Thunder.

Firstly, they're mostly set on guards within the current structure of their roster. Although Dort might certainly depart this offseason, they have Cason Wallace, Ajay Mitchell, Jared McCain, and Nikola Topic to complement Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the backcourt. Out of these, both Mitchell and Topic have major upside as primary facilitators, while McCain and Wallace seem better-suited for off-ball roles long term.

Secondly, while Philon was a highly efficient shooter in his sophomore campaign, his lackluster numbers from the season prior leave room for a certain degree of doubt about his long-term development as a shooter. He made just 31.5% of his 3-point attempts during his freshman season, His off-the-dribble jumper is smooth, and the Thunder can certainly afford another long-term bet on a prospect with potential as a perimeter shooter.

But if they're going to take that swing at 17th, it ideally needs to be for a player capable of slotting into a wing role, especially if we're anticipating the eventual departures of Joe and Wiggins.

It's also not as though the Thunder absolutely cannot draft a guard. We saw what happened to the offense when Mitchell went down in the playoffs. But if they're set on making that addition, it needs to be done with a trade up inside the top-10 for a player like Brayden Burries.

This is primarily about opportunity cost. If the Thunder hold onto the 17th overall pick, they are guaranteeing a roster spot to that selection over a player that's currently on the team. That's a decision that can't be taken lightly, and selecting Philon in that spot is a gamble they can't afford to take.

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