As we approach the 2025-26 season, many seem to be of the belief that OKC Thunder guard Cason Wallace may be en route toward a full-fledged breakout.
Whether it's Bill Simmons suggesting he could establish himself as a legitimate option for Team USA during the 2028 Olympic Games or fellow Oklahoma City teammate and reigning league MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander point-blank stating he "has tools to be an All-Star," confidence in the 21-year-old's ability to ascend into stardom is seemingly through the roof.
Like so many players that have come before him, year three is clearly viewed as a realistic time for a breakout to come about, which, for him, could prove to be incredibly beneficial from a financial standpoint, as Wallace will be eligible for a rookie-scale extension come the conclusion of this coming campaign.
On the unfortunate flip side of such an exciting situation, however, this good timing for the soon-to-be junior could end up leading to a true gut-punch scenario for the Thunder organization, for, based on ongoing trends, an eruption in his play could price him out of the Sooner State.
Cason Wallace breakout could be bittersweet for Thunder
From Rockets forward Jabari Smith Jr. inking a five-year, $122 million deal to Sam Vecenie predicting a "big number" offer north of $100 million is coming for Nuggets wing Christian Braun, it's more than apparent that young and efficient two-way role players are being paid more than they have ever been before.
By all accounts, Wallace already fits this kind of descriptor to a tee.
Last year, the Kentucky product managed to up his stats in a multitude of key areas of play compared to the season prior, finishing off with 8.4 points, 3.4 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 1.8 steals while boasting highly reliable shooting splits of 47.4/35.6/81.1 as a core member of the defending champ's rotation.
On top of this, he would also finish off the campaign ranking fifth in the NBA in total deflections, sixth in total steals, and within the 95th percentile in defensive estimated plus/minus.
Already, there's a case to be made that Wallace is worthy of a payday that stretches into the nine-figure range. Adding a year-three breakout in the same fashion as Braun, for instance, and a league salary cap that's expected to rise to $154.6 million come the time his negotiations can begin, only increases the likelihood of the guard getting such contract offers.
Even if his AAV balloons to somewhere in the $25-$28 million range with a career season in 2025-26, Wallace's services will likely prove to be worth every penny spent.
Unfortunately, after their spending spree this summer, which saw them commit to a potential total of $877.21 million in new, standard deals that will be paid out over the next several years, the Thunder having the ability to cough up the coin necessary to keep him around could become quite difficult.
So while a breakout for Wallace this coming season would certainly be appreciated, as the Thunder will need all the help they can get as they look to repeat as NBA Champions, it could also wind up being a somewhat bittersweet happening in the end, as him exploding onto the scene for the rest of the league to see will only make retaining him for the long-term that much more challenging.