As things currently stand, OKC Thunder cornerstone Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is producing like the best player in the NBA.
From his league-leading point per game averages (32.7) and net rating (19.0) to the sheer fact that he's the top player on the top team in the association (43-9), the superstar guard is undoubtedly amid a career-best campaign and, to many, is widely viewed as the frontrunner to win MVP.
However, with two months left until the end of the regular season, there's still technically a chance SGA could somehow lose his lead in the race for the illustrious Michael Jordan Trophy.
Oddly enough, Bleacher Report's Greg Swartz believes this is exactly what will happen to the Thunder star and, shockingly, is under the impression that Chet Holmgren's recent return will be a prime reason why.
Prediction has Thunder star losing MVP race after Chet Holmgren return
In a recent post-trade deadline predictions piece, the seasoned B/R writer made a surprising case that Denver Nuggets big Nikola Jokic will end up edging out Shai Gilgeous-Alexander once again for the NBA Most Valuable Player award.
Despite acknowledging the Thunder guard's top-billed on-court production and overall impact on his team's winning ways so far this year, Swartz is under the impression that his value to OKC's successes is now bound to become less evident with his stud big running mate back in the fold.
Alluded to in his argument is the difference in Gilgeous-Alexander's counting stats with and without Holmgren on the floor with him.
During the center's nearly three-month injury-induced absence, the All-Star found himself dropping otherworldly averages of 34.6 points, 5.9 assists, 5.1 rebounds, 2.1 steals, and 2.1 blocks. On top of this, his offensive rating registered in at 122.0 while his net rating was 19.8.
With these efforts, he created a considerable gap between himself and Jokic in the MVP pecking order.
However, though still impressive, it's apparent that Gilgeous-Alexander's all-around numbers do, in fact, either stagnate or regress with a fully healthy Holmgren in tow, as he's averaging 26.6 points, 6.0 assists, 5.3 rebounds, 1.6 steals, and just shy of a block in 11 games played.
On the season as a whole, the Thunder also score 115.9 per 100 possessions with the big on the floor and 120.0 with him off of it, which suggests that some eye-catching team metrics could also be headed for a reduction over these next couple of months.
Swartz then stacked up Gilgeous-Alexander's production with Holmgren in the lineup against Jokic and the fact that he's currently posting "the best numbers of his extraordinary career" with 29.7 points, 12.7 rebounds, 10.3 assists, and 1.8 steals on 46.2 percent shooting from distance per night and came to the conclusion that, ultimately, the big man will "win his fourth MVP award."
Now, granted, this is merely one person's somewhat unpopular belief regarding the current MVP race. As even Swartz acknowledged, if the voting process were to take place today the 26-year-old "would probably win."
Of course, as we learned from last season, even owning the number one seed in the Western Conference and flirting with numbers only the great Michael Jordan has posted can be outdone by someone like Jokic who, like in 2024-25, remains the only player in league history to rank within the top-10 in total points, total rebounds, total assists, and total steals as well as to average at least 25.0 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 9.0 assists all in the same season.
Add this to the fact that he's currently on pace to become just the third player ever to average a triple-double for an entire year and the idea that the Thunder star should be seen as a lock to win the coveted MVP award is far from sensible.
To Swartz, with Chet Holmgren now back in the mix the concept of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander being usurped by Jokic becomes all the more plausible.