The Oklahoma City Thunder have reached the NBA Finals for the first time since 2012, and they will face the red-hot Indiana Pacers for a chance to take home the Larry O'Brien Trophy..
While there are many factors that'll determine this series, for OKC to finally achieve ultimate glory, they'll need to play at their absolute best on both ends of the floor and find answers to three of the biggest question marks in this upcoming championship round.
Which offensive engine is more effective?
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Tyrese Haliburton are in the top percentile for scoring and passing, respectively, but their different approaches lead to the same outcome – consistent advantage generation.
Haliburton doesn’t attempt to individually overwhelm defenses via speed or strength. Instead, he patiently picks foes apart and simply takes what the defense gives him.
While this strategy frequently leads to great looks for Indiana, it also means that he can become passive from a scoring perspective.
Unfortunately for him, nobody places more pressure on the ball than the Thunder. Between Luguentz Dort, Alex Caruso, and Cason Wallace, they have a trio of All-Defensive caliber perimeter stoppers.
OKC’s relentless pressure may encourage Haliburton to give up the basketball prior to generating an advantage and subsequently force others to create for themselves. That’s a scary proposition that likely leads to turnovers and middling shot quality against this historic Thunder defense, especially since Pascal Siakam has his own issues to deal with thanks to Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren.
Indiana needs Haliburton to successfully fluctuate between scoring and playmaking, but the former will be incredibly difficult to accomplish. In four contests versus OKC since the start of last season, he has averaged a mere 12 points per game while shooting 46.3 percent from the field.
On the other hand, SGA has scored 36 points per game on 51.4 percent shooting from the field across three matchups since the beginning of last season. Andrew Nembhard doesn’t possess enough length to handle the assignment, while Aaron Nesmith isn’t quite quick enough to stay attached.
SGA should routinely get to his spots, and there’s no Rudy Gobert in the paint to deter rim attempts like last series.
Plus, Nesmith racked up 23 personal fouls in six games trying to limit Jalen Brunson’s slashing. SGA poses similar issues, and Indiana cannot afford to send Nesmith’s outside shooting and isolation defense to the bench.
Overall, the NBA Finals will largely be determined by which All-NBA guard’s impact is reduced more, which bodes well for the Thunder.
Can Indiana’s shooters capitalize?
OKC’s defensive game plan typically revolves around limiting paint attempts and shutting down the opponent’s top scorer. Essentially, they want every possession to be a contested catch-and-shoot jumper from a role player.
This strategy could be extremely dangerous given how well Indiana shoots the ball. They have knocked down 43.9 percent of their catch-and-shoot triples and shot 46.9 percent from the corners this postseason.
Nesmith, Nembhard, and Myles Turner catching fire is a realistic nightmare for the Thunder.
Is Jalen Williams the X-factor for the Thunder?
After an awful start to the playoffs, Williams has averaged 22.5 points and 4.8 assists on elite efficiency over the Thunder’s past six games. His ability to get downhill will be crucial against a Pacers defense that often struggles to handle slashers.
Meanwhile, he’s the key defensive chess piece in this series.
Shutting down Siakam’s all-around scoring is his primary task, but Williams must also be ready to handle Turner’s size and range on switches or during OKC’s small-ball lineups. Plus, J-Dub will likely switch onto Haliburton for a number of key possessions, too.
Overall, a strong two-way series from Williams would likely cause Indiana’s defense to collapse and throw a wrench in their offensive versatility.