Do the numbers support Mark Daigneault's plea for more Thunder free throws?

OKC Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault prefers a calm approach and rarely chews out or criticizes referees, but he didn’t mince words in his postgame interview after the ball club's Saturday night win over Phoenix. 

When asked about the 40-18 free throw difference and Oklahoma City's constant charity stripe woes in general, Daigneault said the following: 

"The free throw disparity coming into tonight was -4.4, which is fifth last in the league…There is a cumulative frustration we have at this point because our guys are working too hard..We are in the bonus 62% of quarters. That’s the lowest in the league..We are trying to figure out what we can do with how much we are putting pressure on the basket to get to the free throw line more because it’s really hurting our offense right now."

- Mark Daigneault, Thunder Head Coach

Does Daigneault have a valid point? Let’s dive into the numbers. 

Do the OKC Thunder deserve more free throws? 

The Thunder’s offense currently sits 29th in free throw attempt rate (FTAr). Here’s where their players individually rank in FTA among the 302 players with 100+ minutes logged:

• Chet Holmgren (29)
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (59)
• Luguentz Dort (201)
• Jalen Williams (209)
• Ousmane Dieng (225)
• Alex Caruso (250)
• Ajay Mitchell (253)
• Aaron Wiggins (272)
• Isaiah Joe (276)
• Cason Wallace (296)

Only two of their players crack the top 200!

Jalen Williams at 209th is the most egregious bullet point. He averages the 23rd most field goal attempts on drives and 27th most paint attempts per game across the NBA. 

As a team, OKC produces the eighth most rim attempts per 75 possessions and comfortably leads the league in shots per game on drives. However, the Thunder only receive 0.129 free throw attempts per drive field goal attempt, which places them 26th.

Daigneault certainly has a legitimate case about this team deserving more shooting fouls based on their rim pressure. 

On the other hand, OKC’s overall shot selection does not quite lend itself to shooting fouls. They take jumpers at the eighth highest rate and 3-pointers at the 15th largest rate, per Basketball Reference.

The Thunder’s pursuit of elite shot quality also definitely hurts their free throw potential. The following breakdown is based on the distance of the nearest defender from the shooter, according to NBA.com.

• 29.6% of FGA are wide open (3rd largest rate)
• 30.7% of FGA are open (9th largest rate)
• 34.1% of FGA are tight (28th largest rate)
• 5.3% of FGA are very tight (27th largest rate)

OKC constantly passes up contested attempts in search of open shots, which is an excellent offensive philosophy. That said, it won’t lead to free throws since the defender doesn’t have a chance to make contact with the shooter. 

Poor offensive rebounding limits their put-backs as well, which is a solid source of shooting fouls. 

Plus, the Thunder prefer finesse over brute force and seldom hunt fouls, flop, or bark at officials compared to other teams. Being the youngest roster in the league also means that their players outside of SGA don’t get the “veteran whistle.” These assuredly factor into how officials call the game. 

Defensively, the Thunder were 22nd in opponent free throw attempt rate before Holmgren’s injury and have since been dead last. It’s not too surprising that the Thunder foul a lot because Daigneault loves to dial up on-ball pressure and physicality against ball-handlers. 

With all this in mind, there's no reason to believe this Thunder offense should be in the upper echelon of team free throw attempt rate based on their shot selection. Around or slightly worse than the league average in free throw attempt rate sounds about right.

29th though? No way!

Daigneault's complaints are valid.