Superstars win championships, but role players often decide the outcome of an individual series. Prime examples of this sentiment that are likely still fresh in every OKC Thunder fan's mind are P.J. Washington’s perimeter explosion and Derrick Jones Jr.’s 22-point performance in Game 6 during last year's ill-fated playoff run.
Now, though these may be stories from the past, the idea of non-star talents having high-end impacts on a seven-game series is far from a one-off scenario.
In fact, though they may be tabbed a favorites to take home the Larry O'Brien Trophy heading into this year's playoff run, there are undoubtedly a few specific rival role players who, if Oklahoma City's not careful, could help pave the way to an upset.
Kris Dunn (LAC)
Limiting Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s impact is essential to defeating the Thunder, and few players patrol the perimeter like Kris Dunn does.
The former fifth-overall pick is holding isolation scorers and pick-and-roll ball handlers to 0.7 points per possession this season. Both marks rank top five in the league among defenders with a decent amount of volume.
Dunn is also a superb defensive playmaker who utilizes every bit of his 6-foot-9 wingspan to force turnovers. Of the players with at least 1,000 minutes logged, he’s top five in steals and deflections per 75 possessions.
Only Alex Caruso fares better in Basketball Index’s metric ball screen navigation, which “measures how effectively a perimeter defender reduces shot quality and limits attempts on ball screens.”
Dunn also ranks ninth-best in Bucknell Sports Analytics’ PEST. This metric “measures a player’s defensive aggressiveness and speed combined with defensive quality and ability to force turnovers.”
SGA can put up numbers against anyone, but Dunn would truly make him work for every shot, every advantage, and every step.
All it takes is a bad game or two from SGA for this red-hot LA Clippers squad to potentially muddy the waters and send the series back to OKC tied at two a piece.
Apollo Creed’s trainer perfectly sums up the situation in the movie Rocky II -– “The man kept coming after you. Now we don’t need that kind of man in our life.”
Nickeil Alexander-Walker (MIN)
Although Nickeil Alexander-Walker isn’t in the same stratosphere as Dunn, the Timberwolves guard can still create complications and defend at a high level.
He's an excellent screen navigator, so SGA and company won’t find it easy to lose him in traffic.
NAW holds his own on an island, too. That’s crucial against a Thunder offense with the capability to hunt mismatches.
He also has the unusual advantage of being the Thunder star's cousin.
This relationship could mean nothing, or it may grant him valuable insight into defending the MVP frontrunner across a seven-game series.
The former is far more likely, but OKC should not be thrilled that the latter is even a possibility. Look for Alexander-Walker to frequently mark SGA when Jaden McDaniels takes a breather.
Meanwhile, he is knocking down 38.4 percent of his triples this season, including 48.1 percent of his corner threes. OKC’s defense is designed to limit on-ball scorers and rim attempts while encouraging lightly contested catch-and-shoot looks from role players.
As a result, NAW’s proficiency from the corners may haunt the Thunder just like Washington and Jones Jr. did last postseason.
This has already been the case this season.
In four matchups versus the Thunder, NAW has averaged 15.3 points per game and shot 54.5 percent from deep.
Plus, Alexander-Walker can also put the ball on the floor in a pinch and create advantages from time to time.
He’s the epitome of adding value as a role player on both sides of the court without compromising the team through glaring, exploitable flaws.
Dorian Finney-Smith (LAL)
Since joining the Lakers in late December, Dorian Finney-Smith has shot 39.8 percent on triples and 44.6 percent from the corners. He’s a serious catch-and-shoot threat.
Finney-Smith’s 41.7 three-point percentage across 35 career playoff games also inspires confidence that he will rise to the occasion.
Unfortunately for the Thunder, Finney-Smith is receiving passes from Luka Doncic and LeBron James –- two of the most talented creators ever.
Because of their height, they are able to look and pass over their defender’s head, which is what Hall of Fame point guard Isiah Thomas called “the fifth passing lane.” In other words, if Finney-Smith is seemingly semi-open, then he’s actually just open.
Los Angeles’ small-ball lineup has also found tremendous success thanks to Finney-Smith’s versatility. Isaiah Hartenstein’s size is a bridge too far for him on an individual level, but Chet Holmgren’s typical mobility advantage won’t fly against Finney-Smith.
Therefore, Los Angeles may perform exceedingly well against lineups with Holmgren at center.
Finney-Smith will also be a valuable weapon against Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Aaron Wiggins.
Overall, the veteran is the ultimate 3&D chess piece with an unusual wrinkle: offensive rebounding.
Finney-Smith crashes the glass and occasionally secures his team an extra possession. This could be another reason why the Lakers may thrive against Holmgren at center.
If the Thunder wind up packing their bags early, Sam Presti may regret not beating Los Angeles’ trade offer to Brooklyn for DFS' services.
Jonathan Kuminga (GSW)
I know, I know… Jonathan Kuminga? Really?
The 22-year-old is still so raw, and he’s undoubtedly a clunky fit with the new-look Warriors due to his poor outside shooting and limited off-ball impact. Golden State is subsequently slashing his minutes.
This choice is more about what he theoretically could do instead of what he’s actually likely to do.
What’s the easiest way to beat the Thunder? By not actually facing them at full strength on the court, and there is a method to somewhat steer toward this goal: drawing fouls.
Although it will not completely remove them from the game, sending opponents into foul trouble can reduce minutes for key players while simultaneously gaining easy points at the free-throw line.
Kuminga’s athleticism and ability to pressure the rim deem him a potential nuisance for the Thunder. He’s excellent at inducing contact and has a larger free throw attempt rate than Trae Young, Jalen Brunson, and SGA.
Check out where he ranks in the NBA among players with at least 1,000 minutes played, according to Basketball Index:
- 11th in drive foul drawn rate
- 26th in fouls drawn per 75 possessions
- 44th in drives per 75 possessions
- 48th in rim attempts per 75 possessions
If Kuminga can work his magic by racking up fouls against OKC’s physical defense, Golden State would gain a considerable advantage -- especially since Jimmy Butler is already hyper-elite at getting to the line.
One player, in particular, who may be a repeat offender is Hartenstein.
The splashy offseason acquisition commits 3.9 fouls per 75 possessions, which is the 29th-largest rate in the NBA (min. 1,000 minutes).
Tagging Hartenstein with a couple of early fouls would reduce the Thunder’s ability to exploit Golden State’s small roster.
Additionally, Kuminga’s athleticism allows him to theoretically defend OKC’s athletes, and his quality offensive rebounding could initiate key stretches for the Warriors’ offense.
Now, his three-point shooting is extremely shaky and strongly dictates how viable Kuminga’s minutes are in this hypothetical series. That said, because of how short a series is relative to an entire season, it’s feasible that Kuminga simply gets lucky and has an outlier shooting performance.
Washington shot 46.9 percent versus the Thunder last postseason and 27.9 percent in Dallas’ other three series. It happens all the time, and it could occur for Kuminga.
The former lottery pick may not create fear in reality, but he’s a dangerous “what if” for the Thunder to go up against.
It's worth noting that in six games versus OKC since the start of last season, Kuminga has averaged 19.3 points per game on 53.8 percent shooting from the field. He has managed to hone his natural potential against the Thunder recently.
Steven Adams (HOU)
The man. The myth. The Thunder legend!
Big Kiwi held down the paint for OKC from 2013 to 2020. Although he is still on excellent terms with the organization, the Thunder can hardly be blamed for never wanting to see Adams once the postseason begins.
His brute force strength is a game-changer because it cannot be schemed away. When Adams steps onto the court, someone is getting picked up and moved like a coffee cup.
He’s one of the most dominant offensive rebounders in league history due to his strength and intelligent positioning. In fact, Adams's 21.8 offensive rebound percentage this season surpasses the current single-season record.
Rockets head coach Ime Udoka has recently leaned into a double-big lineup featuring Adams and Alperen Sengun that looks absolutely incredible. Opponents are struggling mightily to survive their vicious attacks on the glass, and it becomes even more hopeless if Tari Eason or Amen Thompson share the court with them.
Good luck trying to grab a defensive rebound!
The fact that Sengun and Adams can both make advanced passes also leads to a highly unusual passing network. It’s unorthodox in today’s game to see the basketball whipped around like a pinball from one interior hub to another.
Defenses are scrambling to adjust.
On the other end, Houston has run zone defense with the double-big lineup in order to prevent opponents from creating isolation mismatches on the perimeter. An excellent three-point shooting team should be able to torch them, and the Thunder possesses the shooters to capitalize.
However, it will certainly hurt Gilgeous-Alexander's interior scoring because he needs room to operate, and what bodes ill for SGA bodes ill for the Thunder.
Oklahoma City can try to counter with their own double-big lineup containing Holmgren and Hartenstein, but it likely won’t be as effective as usual. Their jumbo lineup works because Holmgren and Hartenstein seamlessly switch between opposing frontcourt players when needed and, therefore, oscillate between anchor big and help defender roles.
That’s fine against a duo like Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen or Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert. However, the Thunder can’t perform this switching strategy versus Houston because Adams is far too strong for Holmgren.
OKC needs Hartenstein to stay tethered to Adams, thus ruining the flexibility of the structure.
Adams won’t post ludicrous box score numbers against the Thunder in a series, but his impact (and elbows) will be felt on every possession.