Coming into the season, given his own elite abilities coupled with the questions surrounding Spurs center Victor Wembanyama's health, it was widely believed that OKC Thunder star Chet Holmgren had a straight-line path to take home the 2026 Defensive Player of the Year award.
Now, 56 games in, the 23-year-old has certainly done enough to ingratiate himself well within the conversation for the prestigious honor from an individual production standpoint.
The big man ranks fourth in the association in defensive rating (103.6), third in total blocks (95), and eighth in opponent field goal percentage (42.9) among those who have seen 40 or more games played.
However, when it comes to the aforementioned angle involving Wemby, things have not exactly gone in his favor, and because of this, ESPN's Tim Bontemps is now arguing that the odds are stacked against Chet to ultimately win the Hakeem Olajuwon Trophy.
Exterior factors likely to determine Thunder star's DPOY fate
During a recent edition of The Hoop Collective Podcast, the contentious battle for DPOY was discussed in-depth among the program's regular pundits, Brian Windhorst, Tim MacMahon, and Bontemps, all of whom suggested that Wembanyama should be viewed as the favorite to earn the illustrious moniker.
However, despite their confidence in the Spurs star's favoritism, Bontemps offered a slight glimmer of hope that Holmgren could still win it himself -- though it would require outside factors, like Wemby missing time.
"If Victor is not eligible for the award, I think it comes down to two people -- I think it comes down to Rudy [Gobert], who just laid out his case, and Chet Holmgren. It would be one of those two. I think Chet would win. The Thunder are the best defense in the league, Chet is an excellent defender. I think you can attempt to make an argument that he's in the same conversation as Victor. I don't think he's going to beat Victor, but he's had an excellent defensive season and is an excellent defensive player... Assuming he is healthy and eligible for it, I think it will be him or Chet," Bontemps said.
As per the league's recently implemented end-of-season awards rule change, a player becomes ineligible for consideration if they suit up for fewer than 65 games in a year.
As things currently stand, Wembanyama has missed 14 games due to injury, meaning he can only afford to miss four more (one game is added to his allotment after making the NBA Cup) before being disqualified.
Right now, the odds-makers have Wembanyama pegged as the favorite to win at minus-310, with Holmgren trailing right behind him at plus-320.
Considering he's ahead of the Thunder center in many key statistical areas, such as total blocks (tied for first at 106), opponent field goal percentage (42.8), and has San Antonio register in with a ridiculous defensive rating of 105.3 when he's on the court, it's easy to see why many see the third-year pro as the frontrunner.
Of course, Holmgren's the anchor to the game's top-rated defensive unit here in 2025-26 and has them humming to the tune of a 103.6 defensive rating when he's on the floor, so, with or without Wembanyama's ineligibility, he has a strong case to claim the hardware for himself.
With that said, as Bontemps highlighted, having Wemby miss four more games over these next two months should help in his efforts.