When the NBA adds new franchises to the league, they initiate an expansion draft in order to create their rosters. The last time this event occurred was the 2004 offseason for the Charlotte Bobcats.
The expansion draft takes place after the NBA Finals but before the NBA Draft, which locates it sometime in mid June. For the purpose of this exercise, let’s assume that Adam Silver just scheduled it right before opening night in October.
In such a hypothetical situation, who would the Oklahoma City Thunder protect? Arguably more interesting, who would be an easy choice to let go?
NBA Expansion Draft Rules
Teams can protect up to eight players who check at least one of the following boxes:
- They are under contract
- They are a restricted free agent
- They have a player or team option for the following season
Unrestricted free agents cannot be protected, and teams must have at least one player in the pool available for selection.
Franchises can only lose one player from the expansion draft. In other words, if there are two expansion teams drafting, then only one of those teams may pick a player from the Thunder. And should they do so, the NBA would reward Oklahoma City with a trade exception that equals the lost salary.
Finally, teams can negotiate to prevent available players from being poached. For example, the Phoenix Suns sent a future first-round pick to the Bobcats in exchange for them selecting Jahidi White and not another, more valuable player.
Given Sam Presti’s draft-pick treasure chest, it’s likely that he would make a similar deal in order to maintain the roster.
Who would Thunder protect in hypothetical expansion draft?
The only player that the Thunder could not legally protect is Alex Caruso because he would be an unrestricted free agent when the expansion draft normally takes place. Presti and Caruso are eager to work out a contract extension this season though, thus making him eligible. Let’s assume that Caruso is able to be protected. Which eight players should the Thunder shield?
Tier 1: Untouchable
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (No. 1)
- Chet Holmgren (No. 2)
- Jalen Williams (No. 3)
These three players are never on the chopping block. Forget about it! The only debate here is whether Presti would protect Chet Holmgren or Jalen Williams first.
Because Holmgren’s profile and skill set are rarer, he likely gets the second spot behind SGA.
Tier 2: Protected
- Cason Wallace (No. 4)
- Isaiah Hartenstein (No. 5)
Cason Wallace flashed immense two-way promise as a rookie. The Kentucky product has a few All-Defensive appearances in his future, can run the offense for stretches, and shoots the lights out from distance.
Factor in his bargain of a rookie contract, and Wallace is the top priority after the big three.
Next, Isaiah Hartenstein cracks the list. He theoretically solves OKC’s rebounding, screening, and size deficiencies while also providing elite rim protection and short roll playmaking. Although the Thunder possess more talented players, his fit is too perfect to risk parting ways with. He allows the Thunder to physically vie against Nikola Jokic, Anthony Davis, Rudy Gobert, Joel Embiid, etc.
Tier 3: Decisions Must Be Made
- Alex Caruso (No. 6)
- Luguentz Dort (No. 7)
- Isaiah Joe (No. 8)
- Aaron Wiggins (No. 9)
- Nikola Topic (No. 10)
This is where things to become quite excruciating.
The Thunder only have three spots left, yet all five players have a valid argument over the others. If this hypothetical expansion draft was real, I would expect Presti to send future first-round picks in order to keep them all. That defeats the point of this activity, however, so soul-crushing choices must be made.
I went with Caruso to kick off this tier. He’s 30-years-old and needs to be extended at a pretty penny.
Those negatives cannot be ignored, but the veteran also helps OKC’s championship adventure the most over the next three seasons. Caruso is arguably the top perimeter defender in the NBA and shoots over 40 percent from three-point range while being able to put the ball on the floor.
His lack of flaws deem him top dog despite the concerning age and contract issues.
Lu Dort nearly edged out Caruso. He’s almost as good defensively and is considerably younger. The playoffs yet again exposed Dort as an offensive liability, which punished him here.
Dort continues to be a non-threat on drives, and rim efficiency eludes him. If it’s not hoisting up a wide open triple, it’s hard not to wince when he touches the ball. His ability to limit bigger, more physical scorers stops his fall.
That’s incredibly valuable against foes like Luka Doncic, who will be a perennial playoff threat.
Isaiah Joe or Aaron Wiggins for the final protected spot? Can I pass?
Joe gets the nod over the man who saved basketball because he complements the stars so well. As one of the best motion shooters in the NBA, it’s challenging for defenders to chase him while simultaneously neutralizing the drive-heavy offense of the Thunder.
The results don’t lie either and ultimately explain why he was chosen.
The Thunder outscored opponents by an impressive 16.8 points per 100 possessions when Joe and SGA shared the court in 2023-24, which was good for the 99th percentile. Joe adds a unique dimension to the offense that no other Thunder player brings, while Wiggins is more of a “fill any role at a quality level” kind of guy – important yet more replaceable.
Both of them are on bargain contracts too, so that did not provide either one with an advantage.
12th overall pick Nikola Topic rounds out the group.
He owns the most individual upside of any player in this tier but impacts OKC’s title hunt the least for the foreseeable future. Topic is set to miss the 2025 season recovering from a partially torn ACL, and it’s unlikely that he becomes a crucial playoff piece in 2026 because rookie ball-handlers typically struggle to adjust.
The next two years represent Oklahoma City’s best title shot before financial issues come knocking, so the fact that he probably won’t contribute drops him to the bottom.
I do believe that he eventually becomes a key sixth man for the Thunder though.
Tier 4: Unprotected
- Dillon Jones (No. 11)
- Jaylin Williams (No. 12)
- Kenrich Williams (No. 13)
- Ousmane Dieng (No. 14)
26th overall pick Dillon Jones owns tantalizing potential as a point-forward who helps on the glass. Sadly, there is simply no space to protect him. He cannot be ranked over proven playoff-rotation pieces that increase championship equity... or Topic.
Perhaps he moves up a tier into consideration next offseason should he put together a stellar rookie season. Until then, however, he stays where he is.
Jaylin Williams is a solid regular season center. He soaks up minutes and contributes to the offense through his outside shooting and passing. Suspect defense and rebounding concerns unfortunately slash his playoff viability.
J-Will gets a rankings boost because of his importance to the locker room. He keeps the team in good spirits, which is important for a young squad seeking to make a deep postseason run.
Kenrich Williams has catch-and-shoot value, and he keeps the ball moving on offense. Meanwhile, Williams has no issue defending numerous roles or switching. Essentially, “Kenny Hustle” is a solid two-way veteran on the bench who at best can play around five minutes during a playoff game.
He also adds value as a locker room leader and culture-setter, but the fact that he turns 30-years-old in December drops him below Williams.
Finally, Ousmane Dieng completes the exercise.
There are occasional intriguing moments, but I’m out on the former 11th overall pick. Dieng’s shooting is too inconsistent, he’s too passive on offense, and there are serious questions about overall feel for the game.
Everyone knew that Dieng was incredibly raw when selected, yet he has not shown enough progress on the court to provide confidence in a major leap. It’s okay to admit that sometimes prospects don’t pan out.
And yes, he is still just 21-years-old, but how is he supposed to achieve massive growth when Thunder can't give him any minutes? Like Aleksej Pokusevski, the time for raw, highly flawed players is over.
Oklahoma City is competing for a title, and all 13 players above him add more to this pursuit.
In conclusion, this would be the most logical list in order if the Thunder faced an expansion draft before opening night.
Protected:
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
- Chet Holmgren
- Jalen Williams
- Cason Wallace
- Isaiah Hartenstein
- Alex Caruso
- Luguentz Dort
- Isaiah Joe
Unprotected:
- Aaron Wiggins
- Nikola Topic
- Dillon Jones
- Jaylin Williams
- Kenrich Williams
- Ousmane Dieng