3 Questions to tip-off: Site expert weighs in on OKC Thunder vs. Warriors

TIP3 – Site expert offers insight into OKC Thunder preview versus Golden State Warriors.

TIP3 means Thunderous Intentions Preview of three burning questions for the opposing team’s  expert. In turn the expert provides the inside scoop prior to tip-off. Lending his insight for the Golden State Warriors is site expert Carlos Murillo of FanSided’s Blue Man Hoop.

Blue Man Hoop weighs in:

In our new TIP3 column we asked FanSided affiliate Blue Man Hoop to share their knowledge  on the Golden State Warriors. Our appreciation goes out to site expert Carlos Murillo for his input. Murillo answered specific questions on whether the Warriors are just toying with us, their weaknesses and if the OKC Thunder are the team best suited to take Golden State down.

Plus we get Murillo’s pick for who wins the game. Without further adieu – welcome to TIP 3:

TI Q1 -Warriors Offensive Brilliance:

Golden State may have got out to a slow 1-2 start finishing week one with the 28^th ranked defense. Steve Kerr proclaimed the players were simply out of shape and sure enough by game eight they were functioning as the top ranked defense. Albeit, they’ve fluctuated defensively, yet remain ranked in the top ten (6^th).

Offensively the Warriors are still the juggernaut of old. To wit, Golden State ranks first offensively (114.5) and boast gaudy stats. Of these the Warriors rank first:

• (68.5)
• (68.5) assist percent
• (1.80)  assist to turnover ratio
• (21.3%) assist ratio
• effective field goal percentage (58.8%)
• true shooting percentage (58.8%)
• fast break points scored (24.5 – second to GSW is Denver with 15.3)

To that end my first question is:

Pundits often refer to San Antonio’s Gregg Popovich as playing chess while everyone else is playing checkers. Are the Warriors the team equivalent of this equation? 

Murillo on Warriors offensive prowess:

I would say yes and no. Gregg Popovich is actually a wizard who dabbles in the dark arts and I don’t think anyone like that exists in the Warriors’ organization.

Jokes aside, I think the Warriors’ inconsistent focus and energy output this year is a version of that. They know how talented they are so they don’t feel like they need to play a full 48 minutes most nights. And, generally, they’re right.

Nonetheless, there are times–like the opener vs. the Rockets and their collapse in Boston–where it comes back to haunt them.

The Warriors are #LightYears ahead of everyone, but sometimes they get too cute and they’re on the wrong end of a checkmate.

TI Q2 – How serious are Warriors taking this Thunder game?

It’s often said repeating as champions is the most difficult task (let alone three-peating) since motivation is difficult to obtain and managing team expectations of non-stars can be taxing.  Golden State seem to be somewhere in the middle of this equation. Having registered the most successful regular season on record (73-9) and broken copious records there aren’t a lot of carrots left to dangle.

Draymond Green alluded to it and Steve Kerr showing up to interviews with nail clippers and a Rubik’s cube punctuated the fact this team isn’t taking itself or anyone for that matter too seriously.  Having said that, last season the Warriors pounded OKC by an average score of 19.5 points.

Do you envision the Warriors (with or without the hobbled Kevin Durant) will be inspired to deliver a statement win tonight? Or are the Thunder just another team Golden State need to play en route to the playoffs?

Murillo on Warriors motivation versus OKC Thunder:

With or without Kevin Durant, the Oklahoma City Thunder contests will never be just another game. As long as this Golden State core is in place and Russell Westbrook is in OKC, these games will be a little more important.

The Warriors haven’t been legitimate rivals with the Los Angeles Clippers for a few years now and, even without Chris Paul in the mix anymore, they still get up for those games. The Clippers game was the first and one of the few complete games they’ve played all season long.

Last year, the Thunder weren’t a threat and the Warriors made sure to smack them down every time. OKC reconstructed their roster with the Warriors in mind and the Dubs know that.

They’ll all play it off as just another game, but I don’t think that’s what they really feel.

TI Q3 – Thunder strengths are Warriors weakness – who comes out on top?

Despite the Warriors obvious talent, depth and capacity to dominate on either side of the hardwood they aren’t without a few weaknesses.

• Rank 29^th in second chance points scored (9.2)
• Allow opponents to score 45.6 points in the paint (23^rd)
• Opponents average 13.2 fast break points (3^rd most)
• Rank 6^th in opponent second chance points scored (13.8)
• Turnovers are a key factor as the Warriors rank third (16.8 per game) and sixth for opponent points scored off those turnovers (19.1)

Although some of these areas may be a factor of focus or interest it does speak to the slight window of opportunity for the Warriors’ opponents. In the case of the Thunder they are still struggling to find a cohesive flow and identity on offense. Yet, the areas of weakness for the Warriors happen to be the same areas OKC excel in.  Westbrook and company rank first in points scored off turnovers (20.9), seventh in second chance points scored (13.4) and sixth in fast break points scored (13.3).

Two of the OKC Thunder’s most complete wins occurred versus Paul George’s (Pacers) and Carmelo Anthony’s (Knicks) former teams. And, while Westbrook remains with his drafting team clearly there is a desire to beat the Warriors given the history. So two part question:

Assuming PG13 and Melo will want to return the favor to Russ and based on the outlined factors above (with the caveat OKC can summon a full 48 minute consistent effort), are the Thunder the type of team who can cause the Warriors problems?

Murillo on the plus/minus battle and game prediction:

More from Thunderous Intentions

• Stealing one player from every Southwest Division team for the OKC Thunder
• Should the OKC Thunder chase after a disgruntled hometown hero?
• 3 OKC Thunder players who can step up in Aleksej Pokusevski’s absence
• Aleksej Pokusevski sidelined approximately 6 weeks with ankle injury
• Damian Lillard does not fit with the OKC Thunder

Heading into the season, it was my prediction that the Thunder would be the toughest playoff opponent for the Warriors. I expected the struggles that they’re having right now, but I thought that their roster construction would be able to make noise in the postseason.

Steven Adams is one of my favorite players in the league. He’s an absolute beast and exactly the type of player the Warriors would struggle with. Andre Roberson and Paul George form the type of defensive duo you need to compete with Golden State.

The Warriors have figured out Westbrook as much as one can, but he’s still going to have a few plays that can seriously shift momentum. Golden State turns the ball over a lot and if he turns a few of those into some of those angry fast break dunks that he loves then it could put serious pressure on the Dubs.

Based on the above, who exits with the ‘W’ and by what margin?

I’m never going to bet against this Warriors team–regardless of Durant’s availability–so I’m going to say the Warriors are going to win in a game where the final score doesn’t reflect how competitive the game was; a double digit victory.

Still, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Thunder stole it. These are the types of games guys get up for and can set aside egos for the sake of getting a huge win.

Next: Full Game Day Preview: Thunder versus Warriors

To get you further prepared for the game check out our full game day preview. And make sure to follow us on Twitter during the game and check back post game for player grades.