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5 reason’s why OKC Thunder RPM projections fall short

By Lawrence George

LAS VEGAS, NV - JULY 9: Head Coach Billy Donovan of the the Oklahoma City Thunder looks on during the 2018 Las Vegas Summer League on July 9, 2018 at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2018 NBAE (Photo by Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images)
LAS VEGAS, NV - JULY 9: Head Coach Billy Donovan of the the Oklahoma City Thunder looks on during the 2018 Las Vegas Summer League on July 9, 2018 at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2018 NBAE (Photo by Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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Sam Presti, OKC Thunder
OKLAHOMA CITY, OK – JUNE 27: Sam Presti of the OKC Thunder speaks to the media on June 27, 2015 at Devon Tower in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. Copyright 2015 NBAE (Photo by Layne Murdoch/NBAE via Getty Images) /

Kevin Pelton’s Projections

Pelton’s system is a lot more complicated than simply looking at individual players RPM’s from the season before. He does acknowledge OKC are likely to benefit from the addition by subtraction given they are removing the Thunder’s biggest net negative in Anthony.

However, Pelton predicts the OKC Thunder are likely to win less for two reasons:

  • Oklahoma City prioritize Jerami Grant‘s minutes over Patrick Patterson (based on Grant’s projected minus -1.7 versus 2-Pat’s positive +0.5 RPM)
  • Nerlens Noel and Dennis Schroder don’t project to be significant upgrades to the second unit (Noel’s projected minus -1.1 versus Schroders minus -1.2 ).

Its hard to take his claims seriously given both reasons don’t account for improved individual play and team dynamics. Lets breakdown Pelton’s projections further and why the team appears to be projecting upwards instead of downwards as he suggests.

*I understand Kevin Pelton’s projections are based on statistics gathered from previous seasons.

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