The Oklahoma City Thunder are officially league champions!
This ball club shattered records on the way to the 2025 NBA title, including the largest point differential ever for the regular season and playoffs combined.
While the players will be celebrating over the coming weeks, this front office has no time to rest on their laurels with the offseason now upon us.
Moving forward, Sam Presti and company must be looking to make decisions based on how it will affect their potential to repeat as champs in 2025-26 and, more excitingly, to become the game's next great dynasty throughout the many years to come.
How they navigate through these upcoming summer months will have a massive impact on the likelihood of them ultimately achieving these lofty, albeit very realistic goals, and, for the Thunder to be properly set up for success following the conclusion of the 2025 offseason, they'll need to understand what the best ways to approach its key events and aspects.
Where the Thunder stand entering the offseason
According to Spotrac, the Thunder have until June 29 to exercise team options for Jaylin Williams and Ajay Mitchell. If the organization pursues this course, they will have all 15 players under contract for next season at a total of $178,712,799, which is roughly $9 million below the luxury tax and $17 million below the first apron.
They could also decline their options and sign them to long-term deals during free agency. This strategy was implemented last offseason for Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe.
OKC owns the 15th, 24th, and 44th picks in the 2025 NBA Draft on June 25, so Sam Presti needs to either create roster space or flip the picks for future draft capital.
Once free agency begins on July 6, the franchise likely has access to the $14,100,000 non-taxpayer mid-level exception, as they project to comfortably duck the first apron.
This tool allows over-the-cap but under-the-first-apron teams to sign free agents or absorb contracts via trade up to the specified amount above, with a maximum 5.0 percent raise per year. However, utilizing at least $5,168,000 of this exception will hard cap a team at the first apron for the entire season.
The NTMLE does not have to be used on only one player, of course.
For example, a team could sign two players in free agency using the exception as long as their combined salaries in the first season do not exceed $14.1 million.
Finally, the following Thunder players are eligible for extensions:
- Jalen Williams (July 1 deadline)
- Chet Holmgren (July 1)
- Ousmane Dieng (July 1)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (July 6)
- Luguentz Dort (July 6)
- Kenrich Williams (July 20)
2025 NBA Draft strategy
The Thunder cannot feasibly use all three draft picks due to a lack of roster spots and available minutes, especially with Nikola Topic already acting as a high-value rookie who needs playing time.
Kicking the can down the road is an option, with the idea being to target future unprotected picks from current contenders. San Antonio followed this blueprint during the 2024 Draft by sending the eighth overall pick to Minnesota in exchange for a top-one protected 2030 first-round swap and an unprotected 2031 first-round pick.
If Presti wants to take this path, then it makes sense to call a team like the New York Knicks, who desperately need to add depth in order to bolster a potential NBA Finals run next season in the wide-open Eastern Conference.
Trading for veterans isn’t a viable plan because they don’t have expendable contracts to match incoming salaries. And as a projected above-the-first apron team, New York won’t be able to employ the NTMLE during free agency.
Rolling the dice on impactful rookies seems to be the logistical choice, but it’s highly unlikely to succeed with only the 50th overall pick in their quiver. That’s where OKC enters the equation. Presti could package 24th and 44th in exchange for an unprotected or lightly protected 2030 first round swap.
New York’s current core would all be in their early-to-mid 30s at that point, and anything can happen in the NBA lottery as Atlanta and Dallas recently discovered.
It’s a reasonable strategy, but is accumulating distant draft capital the best approach for OKC’s current roster? Based on their championship goals over the next five years, probably not.
They are about to become extremely expensive next offseason once Williams and Holmgren’s soon-to-be-signed extensions kick in, and extensions for SGA and Cason Wallace would begin the following offseason.
Isaiah Hartenstein and Alex Caruso are likely to be roster crunch casualties next offseason because they would combine to earn 28.3 percent of the salary cap for the 2027 season –- an untenable percentage with three max contracts projected to be on the books.
Cheap depth via the draft will be crucial, which is where OKC’s treasure chest of picks comes into play.
The Thunder should not be eager to rely on rookies to handle playoff minutes during the big three’s prime, though.
That’s why drafting potential replacements now and letting them develop for a year or two before stepping into big roles is the optimal strategy. It’s the kind of forward thinking that’s needed to maneuver around the vicious CBA.
This abstract ideal begs the question –- who should Oklahoma City target in the upcoming draft?
Thomas Sorber leads the discussion.
The Georgetown freshman is a shade under 6-foot-11, so he’s not a huge center. However, Sorber still projects to be an above-average rim protector due to his 7-foot-6 wingspan, great hands, and 260-pound frame.
His steal and block percentage numbers are especially encouraging. Plus, he flashed the ability to slide his feet and survive on the perimeter.
On the other end, Sorber possesses quality touch inside the paint and excellent passing chops. He can run dribble-handoffs or hunt mismatches on the block, although his three-point touch is still a major work in progress. Essentially, Sorber may be able to fill Hartenstein’s role as a rim-protecting center who finds tight passing windows out of dribble-handoffs and controls the glass.
A foot injury cut Sorber’s year short, which is always scary for big men. Fortunately, a full recovery is expected, and OKC has the luxury of taking it slow.
It’s questionable whether he makes it to the Thunder’s pick, but they definitely have the ammo to trade up.
Portland holds the 11th overall pick and may want to acquire extra picks to hasten their rebuild. Sending them 15th and 24th for the Blazers' 11th is a win-win deal for both sides. OKC could then dump Ousmane Dieng’s salary somewhere like Brooklyn and attach the 44th pick as an incentive, thus opening a roster spot for Sorber.
Phoenix needs a long-term center and now holds the 10th pick after trading Kevin Durant to Houston. It may be necessary to trade with Toronto at ninth overall, and the Thunder could add a couple of future second-rounders next to 15th and 24th to sweeten the deal.
If Sorber is not the target, then Carter Bryant and Cedric Coward are other names to consider.
Bryant’s athleticism, defensive playmaking, and three-point shooting give him a bright future as a potential 3-and-D starter on the wing, while Coward has a bit more self-creation juice but less defensive upside.
The trade framework with Portland could still be necessary for both of these draft risers.
Overall, it’s guaranteed that Presti will make at least one transaction before or on draft night, especially given his recent history. He’s orchestrated a trade on draft night in each of the past six events, spanning all the way back to 2019.
Extensions and team options
The first order of business after the draft will be negotiating extensions.
Jalen Williams should receive the rookie max extension – 25.0 percent of the salary cap for five seasons – with the ability to meet the higher max criteria. If he wins MVP, DPOY, or makes an All-NBA team next season, then his contract spikes to 30.0 percent of the salary cap every season.
Holmgren is also deserving of a rookie max extension, but he should not be offered the higher max criteria clause. This would lock him into 25.0 percent of the salary cap for five seasons. Maybe they can convince him to take slightly less than the max, but it’s doubtful and risks bad blood.
Both of their new deals start in the 2026 offseason, so the Thunder still have them on extremely cheap rookie contracts next season.
SGA is also eligible to earn 35.0 percent of the salary cap on a supermax extension. The reigning MVP can sign a four-year extension this offseason or wait to ink a five-year extension next offseason.
It’s his choice. The new contract would begin during the 2027 offseason in either scenario. OKC has him at around 24.0 percent of the cap for the 2026 and 2027 seasons.
Those are the easy decisions. What to do about Dort is another matter.
He’s under contract at 11.8 percent of the cap in 2026, and the Thunder have a team option at 10.7 percent of the cap in 2027.
For context, Caruso’s December extension is around 11.0 percent annually. Dort probably deserves a slightly larger deal because age-related decline is not a factor like in Caruso’s case. Around 13.0 percent feels fair for Dort, which matches what Kentavious Caldwell-Pope recently received in free agency coming off a great Denver stint.
However, it may be best to delay the extension until next offseason and let the financial waters clear a bit. OKC still has him under contract for two more years, so there is no rush to get it done now.
Presti must also decide about Jaylin Williams and Ajay Mitchell. He could simply pick up their team options, but this would let them become unrestricted and restricted free agents next offseason, respectively. There’s always the risk that another team with cap space submits a Godfather offer that they cannot refuse.
Instead, the wise course is to follow the Wiggins and Joe blueprint -– decline their options and sign them to long-term deals at a team-friendly price because of the immediate salary boost.
The Thunder own full Bird rights for J-Will because he spent the last three seasons with them. They can subsequently offer him a five-year contract with a max annual raise of 8.0 percent despite being an over-the-cap team.
A four-year, $32 million contract at $8 million per year is around 5.0 percent of the cap initially and feels fair for both sides. That’s in the same ballpark as recent deals for backup centers Jalen Smith and Goga Bitadze.
If it seems like Williams is leaving a small amount of money on the table, it’s important to consider that his 2026 salary would jump $5.8 million, and he gets to his third contract one year sooner. Both of those factors more than make up for the potentially lost $1 or $2 million per year (which might not have even been offered in free agency).
Plus, he gets to stay with a franchise that he clearly loves.
Mitchell’s situation is a bit more complicated because OKC merely has his non-Bird rights. This means the first year of the new contract can only be up to 120 percent of the previous year, annual raises are limited to a maximum of 5.0 percent, and the deal can be anywhere from two to four years long.
Since Mitchell earned $3 million in 2025, the maximum the Thunder can legally offer is a four-year, $15,516,450 contract starting at $3.6 million next season.
A three-year, $11,349,000 agreement would give Mitchell long-term security while allowing him to reach his first substantial contract earlier. Based on his total money earned across four seasons, it would effectively be like the Thunder selected Mitchell with the 24th pick in the 2024 NBA Draft.
That’s a great outcome for a second-rounder who commenced his NBA journey on a two-way contract.
Meanwhile, OKC locks in a cost-controlled contributor in anticipation of their team becoming mighty expensive.
Free agency and trade targets
Should the Thunder sign or trade for an impactful veteran? The playoffs showed that OKC would benefit from adding more three-point shooting and ball-handling, but tinkering with a title squad always carries some degree of risk.
It's important to project opportunity, impact, and cost before identifying targets.
There are 240 available minutes per game, and OKC has seven guys who absolutely must receive significant usage next postseason:
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (38 minutes)
- Jalen Williams (36)
- Chet Holmgren (30)
- Luguentz Dort (28)
- Isaiah Hartenstein (24)
- Alex Caruso (24)
- Cason Wallace (24)
Even with slightly conservative estimates, that’s a total of 204 minutes. The Thunder love to utilize either a nine or ten-man rotation during playoff games, so 36 remaining minutes spread across two or three players isn’t gargantuan.
So why does this matter?
Let’s say the Thunder consider going after Cameron Johnson. Brooklyn obviously wants to net a sizable return for an above-average starter who could handle 25 to 30 minutes per game in the playoffs. However, if OKC acquires him, he is likely to see around just 18 minutes per game.
There’s a disconnect between Johnson’s value to most teams and Johnson’s value to the Thunder. Since the Nets are selling him at his full impact price, OKC would essentially be paying for an above-average starter while returning a key bench piece.
Now, sacrificing that unrealized gap may be worth the fee if Presti believes the transaction brings a large enough championship equity boost. It’s just something to consider.
With that being said, Johnson makes a ton of sense as a reliable floor-spacer who can operate off of Hartenstein’s dribble-handoffs. He also adds size to their frontcourt, which is important now that the Rockets look like the Monstars and the Nuggets are still in the fold.
A trade framework would probably be Isaiah Joe, one of Dillon Jones and Ousmane Dieng, and draft compensation.
The fit makes perfect sense on paper, but there are a few reasons to dislike the idea (besides losing beloved Thunder players).
Johnson will earn $44,119,565 total over the next two years, or 13.6 percent of the salary cap each season. That’s about what he is worth, and OKC can remain below the first apron during this upcoming season if they snag him.
Once the max extensions kick in for the 2027 season, the Thunder roughly project to be somewhere in the range of $20 to $30 million above the second apron. Adding more long-term salary is unhealthy from a financial perspective.
And while OKC could treat Johnson as a one-year rental before flipping him, does he provide enough value in one year to justify the considerable trade price? It’s unlikely, and the fact that they won the title means there is less pressure to shove their chips into the pot next season before salary cuts become necessary.
If the Thunder want to make a trade, then their best long-term financial and basketball move is to use Dieng’s expiring $6,670,882 to fetch a similar-sized contract.
Unfortunately, it’s exceedingly difficult to find veterans who earn that amount, are on the trading block, fit OKC’s style, and deserve playoff minutes over guys like Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Joe, and Jaylin Williams.
When considering all of these factors, Thunder fans should not count on Presti making a splash in the trade market, especially since they are not desperate for a ring now.
This doesn’t necessarily doom OKC to inactivity, though. They could still trade their 15th and 24th picks for the 11th, salary dump Dieng and Jones, and use the NTMLE to sign a free agent.
Al Horford is an intriguing name should he decide to leave Boston because of the former Thunder’s three-point shooting and defensive versatility. Malcolm Brogdon on the veteran minimum is another idea.
It’s unlikely that Presti gives up on Jones so early, though. He traded five second-round picks for him on draft night, and Jones is making around 2.0 percent of the cap for the next three seasons.
Thunder mock offseason
Overall, the expectation should be that the reigning champs are active during the NBA Draft and focused on improving their long-term financial health in general this offseason. A huge splash in free agency or via the trade market would be surprising.
Here’s a mock offseason that is both realistic and aligned with the parameters above.
- Trade both the 15th and 24th picks to Portland for the 11th
- Trade their 44th pick and Ousmane Dieng to Brooklyn in a salary-dump deal
- Draft Thomas Sorber (11th) and sign him to four-year, $26,345,863 contract
- Give rookie max extensions to Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren
- Give supermax extension to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
- Decline Jaylin Williams’ team option and use full Bird rights to sign him to a four-year, $32,000,000 contract
- Decline Ajay Mitchell’s team option and use non-Bird rights to sign him to a three-year, $11,349,000 contract
- Exercise club options for Cason Wallace, Nikola Topic, and Dillon Jones for the 2027 season
In this scenario, OKC would be $3,730,662 under the luxury tax and $11,776,662 under the first apron for the 2026 season.
All 15 players would also be under contract for the 2027 season, but at a combined salary roughly $25 million over the projected second apron threshold.
Declining Hartenstein’s team option in response would place them about $3 million below the second apron with one open roster spot.
Other burning questions
Who will win the backup point guard role?
The Thunder are loaded with guards who assume different roles. SGA is the offensive engine, Dort and Wallace bring elite 3-and-D value, Caruso wears every hat, and Joe checks in as the three-point specialist.
What’s needed is a backup point guard who can run half-court actions and set up teammates when SGA rests. The plan can’t just be handing the basketball to J-Dub and asking him to create advantages on nearly every possession.
Mitchell put together a promising rookie year, especially for a second-round pick. He shot 38.3 percent from deep, held his own defensively, and produced decent advanced metrics for playmaking and finishing at the rim.
Although he was a solid all-around contributor, there doesn’t appear to be too much of a ceiling beyond this label. It’s difficult to envision Mitchell consistently breaking down playoff defenses off the dribble.
Topic, on the other hand, was an elite prospect who excelled as a natural playmaker and rim scorer. There’s a world where he makes multiple All-Star appearances, which would be completely shocking to see from someone like Mitchell.
But Topic is still a rookie coming off a torn ACL who has questions about his jump-shot and defense. Can he immediately do the glue guy things well enough to stay on the court in a playoff setting? This is where Mitchell owns a considerable advantage for next season.
How can Chet Holmgren’s offense take a leap?
The Thunder do not win the championship without Chet Holmgren’s defense and tenacity. There should be a few Defensive Player of the Year trophies on his shelf once he retires.
The offense, on the other hand, was a mixed bag. There are three clear areas of improvement for Holmgren to work on this offseason: strength, ball handling, and shooting.
Holmgren is tough as nails, but it’s no secret that he would benefit from being stronger. Defenders often bump him off his driving paths, he struggles to finish through contact near the basket, his screens don’t create space for ball-handlers, and players can move him around when vying for rebounds.
Adding muscle and strength lessens these concerns and also reduces the risk of injuries due to better contact absorption. He’s missed 47.3 percent of games so far in his career, so this last benefit is key.
Meanwhile, Holmgren’s handle is loose in transition and holds him back from being a viable self-created scorer. There were too many times where he beat his defender off the first step but couldn’t get to his spots without turning the ball over or losing control and kicking out to reset the offense.
It’s difficult for players with his height and arms to be tight dribblers, so this area is a major project.
Finally, Holmgren’s release time on long-range shot attempts is a tad too slow. Picking up the pace would give him more open triples by reducing the amount of time a defender has to contest. It may also inspire greater self-confidence in his shot.
If the Gonzaga product manages to make serious strides in these areas, then his ceiling truly becomes limitless.